This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a two-fighter parlay on. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
On paper, this fight is fairly easy to break down. Della Maddalena will look to keep it on the feet and outstrike Emeev. The Russian, meanwhile, will want to try and wrestle and clinch Della Maddalena and make this a grinding type of fight to win a decision.
Although this is just Della Maddalena's second UFC fight, he looked tremendous in his Contender Series fight and his debut. He showed off good cardio and striking along with solid takedown defense. I expect the Aussie to keep it standing and out-volume Emeev, as he averages 8.4 significant strikes per minute while Emeev only lands 2.52. That will be the big difference in the fight, as he will do enough to win a decision.
UFC 275 Bet: Jack Della Maddalena (-160)
Weight Class: Strawweight
For my underdog play, I'm taking the returning Joanna Jedrzejczyk to get her hand raised.
Jedrzejczyk has not fought since UFC 248 in March of 2020 when she lost to Zhang in one of the best fights of all time. I had picked Jedrzejczyk as a dog in that fight, and I actually thought she won. It was such a close fight, so to now get +145 on her makes this a must-play for me.
Along with that, this fight is now a three-round fight, which people aren't talking about enough. Most of the damage Jedrzejczyk sustained was in the championship rounds, and if they went to the scorecards after the third round, it would've been Jedrzejczyk getting her hand raised.
Meanwhile, although the layoff is a bit of a concern, Zhang is 0-2 since their fight and hasn't looked the same. In just three rounds, Jedrzejczyk has all the tools to just out-volume Zhang and win a decision.
UFC 275 Bet: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+145)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Kape came over to the UFC as a former RIZIN champ, and he struggled in his first two fights, as perhaps Octagon jitters played a role. Since then, he has shown off his striking and has gotten two straight KO wins. Bontorin, meanwhile, is there to be hit, as he absorbs 3.27 significant strikes per minute and was knocked out by Kai Kara-France.
The cut to 125 is also not an easy one for Bontorin, and that will only hurt his chin, as Kape will eventually find an opening and get the KO.
UFC 275 Bet: Manel Kape by KO/TKO/DQ (+130)
Weight Class: Middleweight & Featherweight
Choi is coming off a disappointing loss to Alex Caceres and now faces Culibao, who I'm not sold on as a legitimate contender. Choi has a ton of power, and we saw Jalin Turner quickly KO Culibao, in addition to Charles Jourdain hurting the Aussie a few times. Ultimately, Choi is the better striker and can also mix in wrestling. Choi will land the better shots to win a decision or get a late TKO.
To close out the parlay is Allen, who gets a very favorable matchup against Malkoun. The way to beat Allen is to blitz him and catch him with heavy shots, as Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis were able to do. Malkoun doesn't have much striking, however, and is instead a wrestler who looks to hold opponents down. Allen appears to be the better wrestler and striker here, as he can keep this standing and just grind out Malkoun to win a decision.
UFC 275 Bet: Choi & Allen parlay (-104)
UFC 275 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 275 event