Drake's Takes: UFC Picks for Holm vs. Vieira

Drake's Takes: UFC Picks for Holm vs. Vieira

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

Elise Reed (5-1-0) v. Sam Hughes (6-4-0)

Elise Reed - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 5 wins

Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: Reed will have an advantage on the feet, specifically from range. Hughes will have an advantage on the mat if she uses her wrestling, and she may also throw more volume on the feet. I think the odds should be reversed here. Reed's takedown defense is lacking at times, and Hughes should be able to take full advantage of it, making her a solid dog for GPP and cash again.

My Pick:  Hughes

Chase Hooper (10-2-1) v. Felipe Colares (10-3-0)

Chase Hooper - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling, Plus grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins

Felipe Colares - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to primarily play out on the mat as both are well versed in grappling. Colares will have the advantage in striking, but getting to Hooper might be difficult. Hooper has a height and reach advantage and will be the slightly better grappler. I do not trust either guy much, but I lean toward Hooper. He is more dangerous off of his back, and I expect he has been training hard to work on his stand-up enough to take the upset. I would not play either guy for cash contests, but both make solid plays for GPP tournaments. 

My Pick:  Hooper

Jonathan Martinez (15-4-0) v. Vince Morales (11-6-0)

Jonathan Martinez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins

Vince Morales - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be close to a 15-minute striking match. Martinez has nasty kicks and will likely be throwing more volume. He does have a suspect chin, however. Morales will hold the advantage in power and keep volume close if he avoids getting his legs cut out from beneath him. He could also find success with wrestling if he can get the fight down to the mat. Martinez is the better overall fighter, and I expect him to win a close decision. A high score is unlikely in a decision, so both guys are better left for mass entry GPP contests.

My Pick:  Martinez

Omar Morales (11-2-0) v. Uros Medic (7-1-0)

Omar Morales - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins

Uros Medic - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: Another fight I expect to play out on the feet. Morales is a patient striker and will look to keep the fight at range with his two-inch reach advantage. However, he could also find a lot of success if he chooses to take the fight to the mat. Medic is a brawler and will look to push a high pace, fighting in the pocket until he finishes or gets finished. This is an excellent fight to target for GPPs, as it likely ends early. I think Morales's patience causes him issues in this fight, and Medic lands something clean early. 

My Pick:  Medic

Joseph Holmes (7-2-0) v. Alen Amedovski (8-2-0)

Joseph Holmes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling, plus grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins

Alen Amedovski - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: Holmes struggled in his debut but has the skillset to succeed in the UFC. He will hold an immense advantage on the mat and should look to get there early and often. Amedovski has yet to show he belongs in the UFC, and I think this ends up being his last fight in the promotion. He has power and could find a knockout shot, but that would be the only way I see him winning. Holmes is safe for cash and GPP contests. 

My Pick:  Holmes

Jailton Almeida (15-2-0) v. Parker Porter (13-6-0)

Jailton Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins

Parker Porter - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: Almeida is one of the hottest prospects and is looking to prove he can win at two weights, moving up a class here. He has an incredible skillset and will hold the advantage everywhere except volume. Porter will have his hands full right out of the gate and will need to keep this fight at range and off the mat to have a chance. His best path is to fight at range and pile up volume. Almeida is safe in cash and GPP and will likely be one of the most popular plays in both.

My Pick:  Almeida

Polyana Viana (12-4-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (6-1-0)

Polyana Viana - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins

Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: Viana throws solid volume on the feet and excels when the fight hits the mat. She will have a significant advantage while grappling and should find an early finish if it gets to that point. Ricci has solid technical striking but throws lower volume. She also has great wrestling, but attempting takedowns will likely put her in harm's way rather than help her. The odds should be flipped here. Viana has the advantage anywhere the fight goes and is far more likely to find an early finish. She is my favorite play for cash and GPP.

My Pick:  Viana

Eryk Anders (14-5-0, 1NC) v. Jun Yong Park (13-5-0)

Eryk Anders - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins

Jun Yong Park - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight should be closer to a 50-50. I would say the only significant advantage in the fight would be the volume from Park. Both guys have solid wrestling. Park might be the one who initiates takedowns more often, but Anders has solid takedown defense. Anders has more power in his hands and could find a knockout at some point too. A high score is unlikely if there is no finish, as I think Anders's defense slows the fight down. GPP contests are the only way I would use these fighters.

My Pick:  Park

Chidi Njokuani (21-7-0, 1NC) v. Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0)

Chidi Njokuani - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins

Dusko Todorovic - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: Njokuani had an impressive debut with a 16-second knockout and will be a popular play this week. He has impressive, sniper-like striking and massive power. Todorovic's best chance is finding a takedown and keeping Njokuani on the mat for as long as possible. He could also find a knockout, but he is not as likely. Todorovic has weak striking defense and tends to leave his chin open to be hit, so I expect him to get flatlined early. Nevertheless, Njokuani is safe for cash and GPP contests.

My Pick:  Njokuani

Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-5-0) v. Michel Pereira (27-11-0, 2NC)

Santiago Ponzinibbio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 21 finishes in 28 wins

Michel Pereira - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 17 finishes in 27 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight has banger written all over it, and either guy could score a knockout. A decision will likely be difficult to score as both guys throw about the same volume, and I can see both having moments throughout the fight. Either guy could look to clinch up against the cage, but I expect the majority of the fight to fight in the open ring. Pereira can get a little wild with his striking, which could get him caught early. Ponzinibbio has fought the better competition, and is my choice to win by finish or squeak out a decision. Given how close the fight is on paper, I would only use either guy for GPP contests.

My Pick:  Ponzinibbio

Holly Holm (14-5-0) v. Ketlen Vieira (12-2-0)

Holly Holm - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins

Ketlen Vieira - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: At 40 years old, Holm is still one of the best boxers in the division, but you have to wonder how much she has left to give. She will likely look to keep this fight at range, using the ring in her favor to avoid blitzes from Vieira. Vieira will be the quicker fighter looking to brawl in the pocket and eventually look to get the fight to the mat. She is a threat to finish on the mat and would be wise to get it there early. If Holm keeps this on the feet and fights from range, she will win a decision. If Vieira can work inside or take this fight to the mat, she will win by finish or decision. Holm's age and layoff are enough for me to go with the younger and faster fighter. I will play Vieira in cash and GPP contests.

My Pick:  Vieira

FANDUEL SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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