Drake's Takes: UFC Fight Night Luque vs. Muhammad

Drake's Takes: UFC Fight Night Luque vs. Muhammad

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

Heili Alateng (14-8-2) v. Kevin Croom (21-14-0, 1NC)

Heili Alateng - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Low volume technical striker
~ Plus takedowns and wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins

Kevin Croom - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox 
~ Low volume distance striker
~ Plus grappler
~ 16 finishes in 21 wins

DFS Perspective: Croom enters with a 7-inch reach advantage, and if he keeps the fight at range, he will find success. Alateng walks forward with a wide stance, making him susceptible to being hit, but he has shown elite durability and great aggression in the pocket. He will be the fighter more likely to shoot for takedowns, and as long as he does not allow Croom to reverse control, he should find himself in a dominant position for long periods. Also, Croom has been known to accept position on his back, which hurts him more than it helps. Though both guys have a combined 23 finishes, I am not sure there will be one here. In six total UFC fights, all six have seen the judges' scorecards and a low score for DFS. 

My Pick:  Alateng

Istela Nunes (6-2-0, 1NC) v. Sam Hughes (5-4-0)

Istela Nunes - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ High volume striker
~ Minimal grappling/wrestling
~ 4 decisions in 6 wins

Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" -  Orthodox
~ Moderate volume pocket striker
~ Decent grappling
~ 4 finishes in 5 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight was designed for Nunes to get her first UFC win. She will have a considerable advantage in volume and speed on the feet while slowly chipping away at Hughes. Hughes would be smart to find her first official UFC takedown, as her grappling could play a huge part in an upset finish. Without a flash finish, I do not see Nunes hitting value for DFS. Hughes makes an interesting DFS gamble for GPP tournaments, given her grappling ability. Nunes has two losses, and both have been by submission.

My Pick:  Nunes

Jordan Leavitt (9-1-0) v. Trey Ogden (15-4-0)

Jordan Leavitt - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume distance striker
~ Credentialed wrestler/grappler with solid takedowns and submissions
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins

Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox 
~ Moderate volume power striker
~ Elite submission grappler
~ 11 submissions in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be an explosive grappling match that ends early by submission. Leavitt and Ogden are both elite submission grapplers, with 17 between the two. Unfortunately for Leavitt, he will not get a reach advantage in this one, and his striking will likely fall short. On the other hand, Ogden should have a speed and power advantage on the feet, along with better forward pressure. I expect Odgen to shoot for the takedown, and then may the best grappler win. Both guys should be played in GPP with a little more weight on Ogden's side, as an early finish will provide solid value for both fighters.

My Pick:  Ogden

Chris Barnett (22-7-0) v. Martin Buday (9-1-0)

Chris Barnett - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume striker and kickboxer
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 knockouts in 22 wins

Martin Buday - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" -  Orthodox
~ High volume brawler
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins

DFS Perspective: This heavyweight bout should end in an early knockout, likely by Buday. Barnett is undersized, though fast for the division, with excellent kickboxing. A multitude of kicks could slow Buday down if he throws them often enough, which could lead to another flash finish similar to his last fight. Buday throws hammers and employs great volume for a big guy. He will also have a massive advantage on the mat if he chooses to take it there, as Barnett has little no experience in that department. Buday can safely be used in cash and GPP with massive upside. Barnett can be sprinkled into GPP with hopes he catches Buday with a good night kick.

My Pick:  Buday

Rafa Garcia (13-2-0) v. Jesse Ronson (21-10-0, 1NC)

Rafa Garcia - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume distance striker
~ Plus wrestler with crafty takedowns/submissions
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins

Jesse Ronson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70"  - Southpaw 
~ High volume boxer with significant power
~ Competent grappling with plus submissions
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins

DFS Perspective: In three UFC fights, Garcia has been massively outstruck, which will happen again in this fight. Ronson is by far the better boxer, will have a speed advantage with more power, and is excellent at attacking the body to slow fighters down. Garcia has suspect striking but attempts to chain takedowns, continually looking for control. That, coupled with Ronson's ability to grapple, and Garcia likely gasses early, leading to an early finish by Ronson. Given that neither fighter has been particularly successful in the UFC, I would lean only using them in GPP with more weight to Ronson, given his upside. 

My Pick:  Ronson

Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) v. Brandon Jenkins (15-8-0)

Drakkar Klose - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume technical striker – Strong counter
~ Plus grappler and wrestler
~ 7 decisions in 11 wins

Brandon Jenkins - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Switch 
~ Wild striker with considerable power
~ Decent submission grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: Jenkins lives up to his nickname "The Human Highlight Reel" in the form of flashy knockouts consisting of flying knees and spinning attacks. Klose is hittable and does leave himself open for heavy shots, but he should have every other advantage on the feet. He is technical and far more patient than the rather wild Jenkins. Klose can also make this fight much easier if he uses his grappling and controls Jenkins on the mat. A 15-minute striking match would likely end up close with someone getting knocked out. Jenkins is currently the biggest dog on the card, and any type of win would smash his value, but a knockout would break the slate. He can be used in cash if you think he wins or scores well in a decision loss but is best left for GPP. Klose will need a lot of volume/control time or a big early finish to hit value but is safe to use in cash lineups.

My Pick:  Klose

Lina Lansberg (10-5-0) v. Pannie Kianzad (16-6-0)

Lina Lansberg - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Low volume clinch striker
~ Decent wrestling and takedowns
~ 6 decisions in 10 wins

Pannie Kianzad - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox 
~ High volume pressure striker
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 decisions in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: Lansberg is now 40 and has not shown much in her eight UFC fights. This fight will not be any easier for her, as her career begins to wrap up. Both ladies have similar fighting styles; however, Kianzad is far more active and throws much more volume. I do not envision any sort of finish in this fight and fully expect it to be a 15-minutes striking match. Lansberg is entirely off my radar for DFS, but Kianzad could provide decent value for cash and GPP if she pumps up volume or finds control time in the clinch.

My Pick:  Kianzad

Devin Clark (12-6-0) v. William Knight (11-3-0)

Devin Clark - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume distance striker
~ Plus wrestler with solid takedowns and top control
~ 8 decisions in 12 wins

William Knight - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume pocket brawler
~ Plus wrestler with nasty ground and pound
~ 9 knockouts in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: I see this fight going one of two ways. Clark gets the takedown and keeps Knight on his back for 8+ minutes leading to a win on the scorecards, or Knight catches Clark with a nasty hook and makes him go to bed early. Clark has decent striking, but he likely gets knocked out if forced to strike on the feet for 15 minutes. On the other hand, Knight uses brute strength to knock opponents out or slam them on the mat and crush them with ground-and-pound. Clark is the safer play if the fight goes all three rounds. Knight has a better chance to score high for DFS with his finishing ability and should be an excellent pick for GPP lineups. 

My Pick:  Knight

Mounir Lazzez (10-2-0) v. Ange Loose (8-2-0)

Mounir Lazzez - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume technical boxer
~ Plus wrestling and grappling with solid takedowns
~ 8 knockouts in 10 wins

Ange Loosa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" -  Orthodox
~ Moderate volume pressure striker
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: Loosa will be making a short-notice UFC debut, and debutants lately have struggled. He has a small outside shot to push forward and catch Lazzez with something hard but not much else. Lazzez was less than unimpressive in his most recent fight but stands a great chance to get back on track with this one. He will be better everywhere the fight goes and should quickly gas Loosa, giving him a good shot at an early knockout. Lazzez is safe in both cash and GPP. Loosa, I would not play at all.

My Pick:  Lazzez

Pat Sabatini (16-3-0) v. TJ Laramie (12-4-0)

Pat Sabatini - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume distance striker
~ Credentialed wrestler/grappler and submission artist
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins

T.J. Laramie - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox  
~ Low volume pressure striker
~ Solid wrestler with solid ground and pound
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to primarily play out on the mat with both guys fighting for control as neither are proficient strikers. I expect Laramie to initiate the takedowns, as he likes to rush forward and shoot. While he might find success with a single or double leg, it could also cause him to mistime it and allow Sabitini to quickly find a choke. Sabatini is the better overall grappler, and the more time spent on the mat, the better for him. He is safe to use in cash and GPP and has a high upside with a potential early finish. Laramie can be used as a GPP option, but I would not go crazy with him.

My Pick:  Sabatini

Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-1) v. Wu Yanan (12-4-0)

Mayra Bueno Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ High volume pocket striker
~ Plus submission grappler
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins

Wu Yanan - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox 
~ High volume pressure striker
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be a high-paced striking match with both ladies getting decent shots in. Bueno Silva should be the better striker pushing the pace and will have a significant advantage if the fight hits the mat and could find an early sub. Yanan has been written off by most, but she could really surprise here. She is aggressive and can put up significant volume if she hits a groove and will look to mix in takedowns occasionally, looking for control time. Neither fighter likely scores high in a decision win, but Yanan winning would provide solid value and salary relief as a dog in GPP lineups.

My Pick:  Bueno Silva

Miguel Baeza (10-2-0) v. Andre Fialho (14-4-0, 1NC)

Miguel Baeza - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume striker and kickboxer
~ Elite grappler
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins

Andre Fialho - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Low volume power striker
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins

DFS Perspective: With 21 finishes between the two, this fight likely ends early. Fialho looks to pressure forward slowly and brawl in the pocket. While he could catch Baeza and knock him out cold, I think it is more likely that Baeza evades any chance to stick in the pocket for long periods of time. Baeza will be quicker with better movement, and likely cuts down on Fialho's legs to slow him early and then look to catch him with a hard shot to knock him out. He could also resort to his grappling that he keeps in his back pocket and push for a submission. Baeza is safe to use in cash and GPP. With knockout upside, Fialho makes an exciting play in GPP if he were to score the upset.

My Pick:  Baeza

Caio Borralho (10-1-0, 1NC) v. Gadzhi Omargadshiev (13-0-0)

Caio Borralho - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ High volume pressure striker
~ Plus wrestler/grappler with solid takedowns and submissions
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 71" - Switch 
~ Moderate volume power striker
~ Plus wrestler/grappler with solid takedowns and submissions
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins

DFS Perspective: Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, and both look to have a solid chance to come away with a win. Borralho is a quick-handed combination striker with good forward pressure. Omargadzhiev likes to let go with power shots and looks to get the fight to the mat early and often. He is more likely to attempt takedowns and is the better grappler of the two. Either fighter could lock up a submission or rain down ground and pound. With so many unknowns of two debut fighters, I would not use either in cash, but both are great to use in GPP with their finish potential.

My Pick:  Omargadzhiev

Vicente Luque (21-7-1) v. Belal Muhammad (20-3-0, 1NC)

Vicente Luque - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Plus striking and power - 11 KOs
~ Credentialed grappler - 8 submissions
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins

Belal Muhammad - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox 
~ High volume striker 
~ Excellent wrestler with crafty takedowns 
~ 15 decisions in 20 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight is a rematch from 2016 that potentially ends in the same fashion as the first, a knockout by Luque. Luque will be the quicker striker with significantly more power. Muhammad likely looks for takedowns early to avoid that power, but Luque has the grappling to get out of it or turn it into a submission attempt. The longer this fight stays on the feet, the less likely Muhammad will score an upset. Luque should be heavily owned in cash and GPP, as an early finish is likely. Muhammad could crush value as the dog if he winds up scoring the upset, making him an excellent GPP play.

My Pick:  Luque

FANDUEL SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.

DRAFTKINGS SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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