Drake's Takes: DFS Picks for UFC 276 Adesanya vs. Cannonier

Drake's Takes: DFS Picks for UFC 276 Adesanya vs. Cannonier

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

Jessica-Rose Clark (11-7-0, 1NC) v. Julija Stoliarenko (9-7-1)

Jessica-Rose Clark - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins

Julija Stoliarenko - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins

DFS Perspective: Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist, which is her path to victory in this one. Clark was submitted via armbar in her most recent fight, so that possibility is there. However, Clark is the better striker and wrestler and will just need to avoid getting herself caught to take this one. I do not like Clark for DFS purposes, as she likely scores low in a decision. Stoliarenko makes an exciting punt play for GPP tournaments with that submission opportunity, which would smash value. 

UFC 276 Pick: Clark

Jessica Eye (15-10-0, 1NC) v. Maycee Barber (10-2-0)

Jessica Eye - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 15 wins

Maycee Barber - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins

DFS Perspective: Eye will be looking to pack on volume while keeping this fight on the feet for 15 minutes. Barber can match her striking but will also look to mix takedowns for control time on the mat. She will also have an advantage in power and speed. Most of the fight will likely be close, but look for Barber to edge out at least two rounds with her wrestling. Without a finish or multiple takedowns, we likely see a low-scoring decision.

UFC 276 Pick: Barber

Uriah Hall (18-10-0) v. Andre Muniz (22-4-0)

Uriah Hall - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins

Andre Muniz - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins

DFS Perspective: Hall's clear path to victory is via knockout, and Muniz's four losses are by just that, so the opportunity will be there for him. Unfortunately, his power is the only advantage he will have in this one. Muniz will be looking for takedowns and submission opportunities early and often. Hall's takedown defense is average, so long as Muniz avoids getting knocked out, this fight will take place on the mat for as long as it lasts. Muniz is safe for cash and GPP contests. Hall makes an excellent dart throw for GPP contests. 

UFC 276 Pick: Muniz

Brad Tavares (19-7-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (16-2-0)

Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 19 wins

Dricus Du Plessis - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins

DFS Perspective: I see this fight going one of two ways. Tavares avoids the immense power and knockout ability of Du Plessis and wins on the cards, or Du Plessis catches the chin early and puts Tavares's lights out. Tavares is technical and patient and will likely look to counter Du Plessis as he pressures forward. On the other hand, Du Plessis continues to gain confidence and will look to plod forward using his power and end it early. I do not think Tavares will be able to avoid Du Plessis for 15 minutes and see him getting laid down in Round 1 or 2. I love Du Plessis for cash and GPP. Even if Tavares wins, it is likely a low-scoring decision. 

UFC 276 Pick: Du Plessis

Jim Miller (34-16-0, 1NC) v. Donald Cerrone (36-16-0, 2NC)

Jim Miller - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 24 finishes in 34 wins

Donald Cerrone - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 36 wins

DFS Perspective: Both guys are approaching the end of their careers with little left in the tank. Miller has shown his wrestling ability is still there but has also recorded consecutive knockout wins in the two most recent fights. Cerrone is 0-5-1 in his last six fights, with four of those losses being knockouts. He still has solid striking and wrestling, but his chin is a problem. If Cerrone can avoid Miller's power, I think he can win with volume and takedowns. However, Miller has shown a little more left in the tank, and another knockout is probable. I do not trust either guy for DFS, but Miller in GPP contests is not the worst play.

UFC 276 Pick: Miller

Ian Garry (9-0-0) v. Gabriel Green (11-3-0)

Ian Garry - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins

Gabriel Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: Garry has looked as promised, and we still have not seen every part of his game. His striking has looked clean and crisp, counter has been excellent and the little wrestling he has shown has been great. Green has looked solid in consecutive fights but is running into a buzzsaw. He starts at a considerable size disadvantage and will continually be walking into counter shots as he attempts to plod forward. Either guy could look to mix in takedowns, but I expect the majority of the fight to play out on the feet. Green makes an interesting GPP punt if he can land volume and takedowns while avoiding the knockout. Garry is a fine play for cash and GPP, as a win and finish is likely. 

UFC 276 Pick: Garry

Brad Riddell (10-2-0) v. Jalin Turner (13-5-0)

Brad Riddell - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins

Jalin Turner - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet, with the size advantage of Turner making all the difference. Riddell is technical and can find good spots with his counter, but Turner has made a habit of finishing opponents, and I do not see it being different here. Turner can win this on the feet or the mat, and I expect him to show out again. Riddell's best chance is to slow play this, land harder shots and win on the score cards. I like Turner for both cash and GPP contests. Riddell is better left for GPP or nothing, as a high score from him is unlikely in a win.

UFC 276 Pick: Turner

Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0, 1NC) v. Sean O'Malley (15-1-0)

Pedro Munhoz - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins

Sean O'Malley - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: This will be O'Malleys biggest test to date, and I think he nails it. Munhoz is still a great fighter and has a solid game but has become very hittable and will be at a significant size disadvantage. Munhoz could slow O'Malley down with leg kicks, but ultimately I think the volume from O'Malley overwhelms him and eventually finishes him. I like O'Malley for cash and GPP contest. Munhoz can be sprinkled into GPP contests as a dart, given his pedigree and ability for a potential finish. 

UFC 276 Pick: O'Malley

Robbie Lawler (29-15-0, 1NC) v. Bryan Barberena (17-8-0)

Robbie Lawler - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins

Bryan Barberena - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins

DFS Perspective: I do not take much stock in Lawler's last win, as it seemed more like an exhibition than anything else. He still has good volume and power, but against a much more active fighter, I am not sure he holds up. On the other hand, Barberena should be able to keep up with the volume and has power himself. I expect this to be a 15-minute striking affair leading to a close decision if it does not end via knockout. I need to see more of Lawler to feel comfortable taking him to win again. Barberena has been more active, is younger and is likely hungrier. I do not trust either guy much, but Barberena should win this with a lower-scoring decision.

UFC 276 Pick: Barberena

Sean Strickland (25-3-0) v. Alex Pereira (5-1-0)

Sean Strickland - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 25 wins

Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 5 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be an exciting 15-minute striking match with a takedown or two mixed in from Strickland. I am not entirely sold on Pereira, but he has strong striking and should give Strickland a good showing. Strickland loves a dog fight and will be happy to brawl in this one. However, he would be wise to take the fight down to the mat to sway rounds in his favor. This fight will be close on the scorecards, but I expect Strickland to pull this out. I am not comfortable using either for cash, but both would be solid for GPP, given that a knockout could happen at any time. 

UFC 276 Pick: Strickland

Alexander Volkanovski (24-1-0) v. Max Holloway (23-6-0)

Alexander Volkanovski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins

Max Holloway - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 23 wins

DFS Perspective: The trilogy fight between two of the greatest to ever do it. We know what we are going to get. A ton of volume, with a few takedowns scattered in from Volkanovski. Holloway stated publicly that he does not believe this goes to the bell, and I tend to agree. Holloway has spent much of his time being a full-time gamer and not necessarily focusing on fighting. Volkanovski has seemingly hit another level, and I think he finishes Holloway early in this one. I would have Volkanovski in every lineup, as I think he shatters value. Playing both in cash contests is not a bad idea if you think it goes the distance.  

UFC 276 Pick: Volkanovski

Israel Adesanya (22-1-0) v. Jared Cannonier (15-5-0)

Israel Adesanya - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins

Jared Cannonier - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: Adesanya is back to defend his belt and should be successful once again. I expect him to keep at range and use his length to find strikes and counter strikes as Cannonier plods forward. Cannonier's only real path to victory is by knockout. He has immense power and only needs to land once for it to count. If he can land a takedown, he could also find success on the mat. I do not think Adesanya comes close to value without a finish, so he should only be played in GPP. Cannonier makes for an exciting punt at the lowest-priced option. If he scores a knockout, he smashes value and breaks the slate.

UFC 276 Pick: Adesanya

FANDUEL SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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