1.  
QB  BUF
Pass Att
571
Pass Yds
4322
Pass TD
32
Pass Int
14
YPA
7.6
Rush Att
115
Rush Yds
601
Rush TD
6
Rush Avg
5.2
Allen’s efficiency regressed last season, but passing volume and rushing production were more than enough to make him the first QB since Daunte Culpepper (2003-04) to lead the position in fantasy scoring in back-to-back years. After taking a huge leap in accuracy in 2020, Allen’s on-target rate fell by five percentage points and his completion rate by six points last season, contributing to a decline of more than yard in YPA (6.8, 24th). He ranked fourth in pass attempts, though, which helped him top 4,000 passing yards and 35 TDs for the second year in a row, one of just four QBs to do so. And with triple-digit rushes (for the third consecutive year), a league-high 6.3 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns, Allen easily separated himself from the QB pack. Coach Sean McDermott said in March that Allen might run less frequently this season, but 48 of Allen’s 122 rushes last year were scrambles (3rd), so even if the Bills limit designed runs, Allen still likely will find plenty of opportunities to use his legs. The Bills return their main playmakers, including wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, and added Jamison Crowder to replace slot receiver Cole Beasley, giving Allen one of the league’s best WR trios. In the red zone, 6-4 TE Dawson Knox is an effective target. Allen’s combination of arm and legs has few peers, giving him a shot to become the first QB since Brett Favre (1995-97) to lead the position in fantasy scoring for a third consecutive year.
2.  
QB  KC
Pass Att
590
Pass Yds
4608
Pass TD
36
Pass Int
12
YPA
7.8
Rush Att
67
Rush Yds
335
Rush TD
3
Rush Avg
5.0
Mahomes had an erratic season in 2021. In the first six games, he had 18 TD passes but eight interceptions, more than he had in either of the previous two years. In the next six games, he had just seven TDs — five of which came in one game. But in his last five games, he went on a 12/1 TD/INT run to finish QB4 in fantasy. Mahomes’ YPA dropped to a career-low 7.4 (13th) as his average target depth fell to 7.3, 25th in the league, but he helped his fantasy value with a career-high 384 rushing yards (and two scores). He might need to pad his stats with rushing production again this year after playmaker Tyreek Hill was traded to the Dolphins. The Chiefs signed JuJu Smith-Schuster, who becomes the new No. 1 WR. Smith-Schuster is not a burner but should thrive with a QB who can actually throw downfield. The new deep threat is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who shined at times in Green Bay but who also has suspect hands. MVS joins fellow speedster Mecole Hardman, who still is looking to break out. The Chiefs also drafted the speedy Skyy Moore in the second round. Tight end Travis Kelce might end up with an even bigger target share, and even though the Chiefs added Ronald Jones to the backfield, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still the third-down back. Hill is undoubtedly a big loss, but Mahomes still has weapons to prosper, and it's not enough to bet against him.
3.  
QB  LAC
Pass Att
613
Pass Yds
4646
Pass TD
35
Pass Int
12
YPA
7.6
Rush Att
66
Rush Yds
327
Rush TD
3
Rush Avg
5.0
Herbert followed his record-setting rookie year with another season of prolific numbers. He became the only player in NFL history with 30-plus touchdown passes in each of his first two years, setting records for most TD passes, passing yards and 300-yards games in a player’s first two seasons. Herbert finished QB2 in fantasy, posting at least 300 yards or three TD passes in 12 games to rank third in touchdowns (38) and second in yards (5,014). Herbert’s passing efficiency last season was similar to his impressive first year, up a tick or two in a few places like YPA, on-target percentage and average target depth. And he continued to be effective using his big arm throwing downfield, ranking third in on-target rate on attempts of 20-plus yards (min. 50 attempts). He did all that after learning his second offense in as many years with the arrival of a new coaching staff. With head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi returning, stability figures to help Herbert in his third year. A bigger help is the return of wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. The Chargers signed TE Gerald Everett, which gives Herbert another quality target. And the team drafted Zion Johnson in the first round to improve an offensive line that allowed 137 QB pressures last year (9th). Herbert has yet to really tap into his running ability, which gives him additional upside. A top-5 fantasy finish among QBs is almost a lock.
4.  
QB  CIN
Pass Att
589
Pass Yds
4531
Pass TD
34
Pass Int
12
YPA
7.7
Rush Att
47
Rush Yds
186
Rush TD
3
Rush Avg
4.0
Burrow came back from a major knee injury that ended an impressive rookie year to lead the Bengals to the Super Bowl last season. But whereas in his first year Burrow put up big numbers on the back of 40.4 pass attempts per game (a league-high through Week 11), he put up big numbers last season as perhaps the league’s best passer. Burrow, who averaged just 32.5 attempts per game (17th), led the league in on-target rate at 80.6 percent while averaging 8.1 yards per target (10th). That propelled him to a 70.4 completion percentage and 8.9 YPA — both tops in the league. Burrow capitalized on downfield throws, ranking fourth in on-target percentage (59.0), third in YPA (17.0) and first in touchdowns (11) on attempts of 20-plus yards, getting an instant boost from rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, with whom he teamed for a league-high six 50-yard completions and 22 20-yard completions (4th). Chase returns with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, giving Burrow one of the league’s best WR trios. Joe Mixon balances the offense with a running game that made him a 1,200-yard rusher. And after allowing 55 sacks (and an NFL-record 19 in the playoffs), the Bengals remade the offensive line in a big way by signing center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La'el Collins. The only thing Burrow doesn’t do is run, which is seemingly the only thing that could keep him from finishing as a top-5 fantasy QB this year.
5.  
QB  BAL
Pass Att
490
Pass Yds
3706
Pass TD
24
Pass Int
12
YPA
7.6
Rush Att
156
Rush Yds
889
Rush TD
5
Rush Avg
5.7
Jackson had a lot going against him last year. He lost running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards before the season even started and then he missed five games to illness and injury. It’s too bad because Jackson’s per-game numbers were strong. He averaged a career-high 240.2 passing yards and 63.9 rushing yards per game, just off the previous year’s pace. Prorated to 17 games, those numbers would vault him into the top 5 of fantasy QBs, even with his downturn in total touchdowns (18). His completion percentage (64.4) matched his previous year while his 7.5 YPA (8th) was slightly improved on a 9.3-yard average target depth (3rd). The biggest issue was a career-high 13 interceptions as he his 3.4 INT rate was second highest in the league. In any event, a year of good health is most important — for Jackson, the running backs and second-year WR Rashod Bateman, who was limited to 12 games last year in an otherwise promising rookie season. Bateman is the new No. 1 WR after Marquise Brown was traded on draft day, but the Ravens did not draft a wideout (though they drafted two tight ends) and other than All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews have no additional proven targets. The offensive line got help with first-round pick Tyler Linderbaum, one of the best center prospects in years, who will replace the departed Bradley Bozeman. As the league’s best running quarterback, it won’t take much for Jackson to bounce back into the top 5 at the position again.
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