This article is part of our Survivor series.
Congratulations! Like everyone else, you made it to Week 7.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are two overwhelming favorites, the Rams and Cardinals and one big favorite in the Bucs. Accordingly, this is a pretty straightforward slate, though the Cardinals high ownership rate puts them at No. 2 or 3.
To illustrate, let's compare the Cardinals to the Bucs. A Cardinals win/Bucs loss is .94 * .13 = .12. A Bucs win/Cardinals loss is .88 * .06 = .05. The ratio of .12/.05 = 2.4.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10-buy-in pool, if the Cardinals lose/Bucs win, that's 49 out on the Cardinals plus nine more on other teams for a total of 58. 100-58 = 42 remaining and $1000/42 = $23.81.
If the Cardinals win/Bucs lose, four people go down on the Bucs and nine on other teams for a total of 13. 100-13 = 87, and 1000/87 = $11.49. the ratio of $23.81 to $11.49 = 2.1.
In other words, even with 49 percent of your pool on the Cardinals, the risk of fading them for the Bucs still outweighs the reward.