# Surviving Week 7

Congratulations! Like everyone else, you made it to Week 7.

Let's take a look at this week's slate:

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

There are two overwhelming favorites, the Rams and Cardinals and one big favorite in the Bucs. Accordingly, this is a pretty straightforward slate, though the Cardinals high ownership rate puts them at No. 2 or 3.

To illustrate, let's compare the Cardinals to the Bucs. A Cardinals win/Bucs loss is .94 * .13 = .12. A Bucs win/Cardinals loss is .88 * .06 = .05. The ratio of .12/.05 = 2.4.

In our hypothetical 100-person, \$10-buy-in pool, if the Cardinals lose/Bucs win, that's 49 out on the Cardinals plus nine more on other teams for a total of 58. 100-58 = 42 remaining and \$1000/42 = \$23.81.

If the Cardinals win/Bucs lose, four people go down on the Bucs and nine on other teams for a total of 13. 100-13 = 87, and 1000/87 = \$11.49. the ratio of \$23.81 to \$11.49 = 2.1.

In other words, even with 49 percent of your pool on the Cardinals, the risk of fading them for the Bucs still outweighs the reward.

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