College Football Fantasy Five: Big 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends

College Football Fantasy Five: Big 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends

This article is part of our College Football Fantasy Five series.

Even though there are no official college football games being played, it doesn't mean that we can't start preparing for the 2022 fantasy college football season. I've already revealed my top five new head coach landing spots with significant college fantasy football (CFF) implications. 

Now I'm going to dig into each conference to find some interesting offensive trends with an emphasis on Offensive Yards Per Play data over the last five seasons. Offensive YPP is a great indicator for a team's true efficiency and is extremely relevant for CFF purposes. I'll also sprinkle in some team passing and rushing percentages which help us understand whether a team has a tendency towards a certain play style on offense. Please be aware that 2020 was an odd season with the COVID-19 protocols and a smaller sample size of games.

Big Ten Offensive Analytics and Trends (6/6/22)
ACC Analytics, Systems and Trends (6/13/22)

Here are five interesting trends and patterns that popped off the paper at me:

Top Five Offensive Trends and Analytics for the Big 12 

5.) Texas Tech Will Be Slinging It

   20212020201920182017
Texas Tech Rank1349445234
  Off YPP6.65.846.095.996.17
  Total Yards54124295569158226170
  Total Pass Att388398531535541
  Total Rush Att436337404437459
  Pass %47.09%54.15%56.79%55.04%54.10%

Matt Wells did a serviceable job with the Red Raiders; however, it wasn't nearly enough high-flying offense for the locals. That's why they went out and snatched up offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, who helped Western Kentucky rank 3rd in the nation with an offensive YPP of 7.1 during the 2021 season. They threw the ball a ton at a 66.04 percent passing rate. I don't believe the Red Raiders' Raiders signal-caller will put up Bailey Zappe numbers (38.1 fantasy points per game at WKU in 2021), but whoever wins the starting job in an open battle for the position will be plenty relevant for fantasy purposes.

CFF Players to Consider
WR Myles Price (ADP ~ Rounds 2-3)
QB Tyler Shough (ADP ~ Rounds 8-10)
TE Baylor Cupp (ADP ~ Rounds 14-16)
WR Jerand Bradley (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
RB Tahj Brooks (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
QB Behren Morton & Donovan Smith (ADP ~ Lottery Potential)

4.) Can Oklahoma State Find Their Offense Again?

   20212020201920182017
Oklahoma St Rank837520175
  Off YPP5.55.576.396.447.34
  Total Yards58844270590160007396
  Total Pass Att448301362447503
  Total Rush Att620465562484505
  Pass %41.95%39.30%39.18%48.01%49.90%

Mike Gundy typically creates solid offensive units, but last season they leaned fairly heavily on their dependable defense. Some would argue this was due to the inconsistent play from quarterback Spencer Sanders and I can't necessarily disagree. He's fought injuries and the Cowboys have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the conference over the last three years. Sanders is just one of seven power five quarterbacks in the country who started in 2019 and is still at the same school, that transfer portal is a fickle thing! Expect Sanders and the Cowboys to create efficient offense that looks more like the 2017 and 2018 seasons. 

CFF Players to Consider
RB Dominic Richardson (ADP ~ Rounds 7-9)
WR Jaden Bray (ADP ~ Rounds 9-11)
QB Spencer Sanders (ADP ~ Rounds 13-15)
WR Brennan Presley (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

3.) There Shouldn't be a Steep Drop-Off with Oklahoma

   20212020201920182017
Oklahoma Rank617111
  Off YPP6.96.717.968.758.29
  Total Yards58634366752775138114
  Total Pass Att404303381364433
  Total Rush Att447348565495546
  Pass %47.47%46.54%40.27%42.37%44.23%

With Lincoln Riley bolting to USC and taking his offense to the west coast with him, the Sooners pivoted and brought in defensive mastermind Brent Venables from Clemson. Does that mean the days of dominating the Big 12 in every offensive category are over? Not so fast as Oklahoma continues to bring in super-talented recruits and hired Jeff Lebby as their offensive coordinator who has promised to continue running an up-tempo offense. That's exactly what he did at Ole Miss while ranking 37th and 10th in Offensive YPP over the last two years. Venables also saw some good offense while at Clemson, so I don't really see this unit taking a huge step back.

CFF Players to Consider
QB Dillon Gabriel (ADP ~ Rounds 2-3)
WR Marvin Mims (ADP ~ Rounds 4-5)
RB Eric Gray (ADP ~ Rounds 13-15)
RB Jovantae Barnes (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Jalil Farooq (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

2.) TCU Could Turn Some Heads with Offense

   20212020201920182017
TCU Rank1141938940
  Off YPP6.76.015.415.466.09
  Total Yards52234112489244955869
  Total Pass Att310274395389430
  Total Rush Att473410510435533
  Pass %39.59%40.06%43.65%47.21%44.65%

The Sonny Dykes hire was perfect for TCU and not nearly enough people are talking about it for fantasy. Here are Dykes' numbers in four years at nearby SMU:

   2021202020192018
SMU Rank36244096
Sonny Dykes EraOff YPP6.36.576.145.35
  Total Yards5592494563684646
  Total Pass Att468376503468
  Total Rush Att422377534401
  Pass %52.58%49.93%48.51%53.86%

While it did take him some time to get it going at SMU, he's working with a much more talented roster with the Horned Frogs, including 10 returning starters on the offensive end. Quentin Johnston is one of the best yet underrated receivers in the country and TCU has multiple quarterbacks to throw him the ball if needed. I'm hoping the TCU defense struggles a bit because it could lead to the offense being in full gear which is exciting under Dykes. A September 24th game at SMU will be all kinds of fantasy goodness.

CFF Players to Consider
WR Quentin Johnston (ADP ~ Rounds 3-4)
RB Kendre Miller (ADP ~ Rounds 14-16)
RB Emani Bailey (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Taye Barber (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
QB Chandler Morris, Max Duggan OR Sam Jackson (ADP ~ Lottery Potential)

1.) All the Pieces are in Place for Texas to Explode!

   20212020201920182017
Texas Rank28302175104
  Off YPP6.36.366.375.585.15
  Total Yards50964116605654035180
  Total Pass Att346317470448499
  Total Rush Att457330480520507
  Pass %43.09%49.00%49.47%46.28%49.60%

The Longhorns have all the tools and potential to make the jump to being the best offense in college football. They have absolute superstars in Bijan Robinson & Xavier Worthy, a young stud quarterback in Quinn Ewers, a questionable defense and an offensive mastermind coach in Steve Sarkisian. I saw all I needed to see in Sarkisian's first year to believe that this Texas squad can put it all together to have a huge fantasy impact. The non-conference schedule which includes ULM, Alabama and UTSA just screams points as well!

CFF Players to Consider
RB Bijan Robinson (ADP ~ Early 1st) *My top CFF Player for 2022!
WR Xavier Worthy (ADP ~ Rounds 1-2)
WR Isaiah Neyor (ADP ~ Rounds 8-10)
TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Jordan Whittington (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
QB Quinn Ewers OR Hudson Card (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Grays
Grays covers college football for RotoWire by night and is a Financial Analyst by day.
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