College Football Fantasy Five: ACC Analytics, Systems and Trends

College Football Fantasy Five: ACC Analytics, Systems and Trends

This article is part of our College Football Fantasy Five series.

Even though there are no official college football games being played, it doesn't mean that we can't start preparing for the 2022 fantasy college football season. I've already revealed my top five new head coach landing spots with significant college fantasy football (CFF) implications. 

Now I'm going to dig into each conference to find some interesting offensive trends with an emphasis on Offensive Yards Per Play data over the last five seasons. Offensive YPP is a great indicator for a team's true efficiency and is extremely relevant for CFF purposes. I'll also sprinkle in some team passing and rushing percentages which help us understand whether a team has a tendency towards a certain play style on offense. Please be aware that 2020 was an odd season with the COVID-19 protocols and a smaller sample size of games.

Big Ten Offensive Analytics and Trends (6/6/22)

Here are five interesting trends and patterns that popped off the paper at me:

Top Five Offensive Trends and Analytics for the ACC 

5.) Which Clemson are we going to get?

 20212020201920182017
Rank103224354
Off YPP5.26.597.387.375.74

With Trevor Lawrence at QB from 2018-2020, the Tigers had one of the best offenses in college football. They took a significant step back in 2021 with D.J. Uiagalelei leading an offensive unit that returned just five starters. I'm not sure anyone expected Clemson to have the worst offense in the ACC, but that's what happened and it wasn't really even that close.

For 2022, Clemson has promoted Brandon Streeter, who has been with the team since 2015, to offensive coordinator. He inherits nine returning starters with loads of talent, so I believe there's some value to be had here as there will be some understandable recency bias for CFF drafts this upcoming fall. The fact remains that Clemson is the favorite to win the conference and RB Will Shipley is one of the most talented running backs in the country.

CFF Players to Consider
RB Will Shipley (ADP ~ Rounds 2-3)
QB D.J. Uiagalelei (ADP ~ Rounds 14-16)
WR Joseph Ngata (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Beaux Collins (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

4.) Don't Write Off Pittsburgh Without the Stars

 20212020201920182017
Rank25971065694
Off YPP6.45.135.185.925.35

There's nothing particularly amazing about these numbers above and losing QB Kenny Pickett, WR Jordan Addison and their offensive coordinator should have you questioning whether you want any piece of the Pitt offense for fantasy purposes. Frank Cignetti will come over as the new OC from Boston College where they had a run percentage of 61.08 percent last season. The Panthers utilized a committee approach last season with Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis at running back, but there's some serious upside potential here as Pittsburgh is projected to have the best offensive line in the conference with all five starters back.

CFF Players to Consider
RB Israel Abanikanda (ADP ~ Rounds 17-19)
QB Kedon Slovis (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Konata Mumpfield (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

3.) Virginia Will Have No Choice But to Score

 20212020201920182017
Rank5767858117
Off YPP6.95.575.665.94.9

With the Cavs, it's all about the returning talent at quarterback and receiver as they have an entirely new offensive line and new head coach in Tony Elliott. Moreover, the defense is a huge problem (yielded 466 yards per game last year) and I don't see that getting much better for the 2022 season. With that in mind, Brennan Armstrong and his three-headed monster at wide receiver will be asked to play backyard football which could bode well for fantasy purposes. Virginia had a 62 percent pass rate last season, and that rate should be similar in 2022 considering what the Cavaliers have returning this season.

CFF Players to Consider
QB Brennan Armstrong (ADP ~ Rounds 3-5)
WR Dontayvion Wicks (ADP ~ Rounds 4-6)
WR Keytaon Thompson (ADP ~ Rounds 16-18)
WR Billy Kemp (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

2.) The Sky is the Limit for Louisville

 20212020201920182017
Rank102012973
Off YPP6.76.636.685.317.39

Over the last five seasons, Louisville has had only one blip and that was in 2018 when they had to replace the Heisman winner Lamar Jackson after his masterful 2017 season. Head coach Scott Satterfield came in during the 2019 season and has been solid offensively. He was at Appalachian State previously where he ranked 15th and 19th in Off. YPP for 2018 and 2017 respectively. That's five straight years as one of the most efficient offenses in college football and he's collaborating with one of the most talented quarterbacks in the nation. That sounds like a recipe for success and a lot of CFF upside to me!

CFF Players to Consider
QB Malik Cunningham (ADP ~ Rounds 2-3) *Should be a first-round pick
TE Marshon Ford (ADP ~ Rounds 13-15)
RB Tiyon Evans (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Dee Wiggins (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Tyler Hudson (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
RB Trevion Cooley (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

1.) All Signs are Pointing Up for Miami

   20212020201920182017
Miami, FL Rank4542797129
  Off YPP6.15.975.665.656.24
  Total Yards53864323477444955243
  Total Pass Att464332437339426
  Total Rush Att415392407456414
  Pass %52.79%45.86%51.78%42.64%50.71%

Those are the Hurricanes' numbers from the last five seasons, but to be proactive, what we really care about is Mario Cristobal's numbers at Oregon.

   20212020201920182017
Oregon Rank389275138
  Off YPP6.37.226.346.036.1
  Total Yards59312325606353515732
  Total Pass Att411144446385311
  Total Rush Att535178510502628
  Pass %43.45%44.72%46.65%43.40%33.12%

Cristobal has finally arrived at his dream job as he played offensive line at Miami from 1988 through 1992. As you can see from the Oregon stats, he likes to lean on the offensive line with a strong run game which makes sense. Scouts are drooling over QB Tyler Van Dyke which sets up extremely well for backers of Jaylan Knighton as I expect the run percentage to be higher than the pass percentage for the Canes this year.

CFF Players to Consider
QB Tyler Van Dyke (ADP ~ Rounds 11-13)
RB Jaylan Knighton (ADP ~ Rounds 11-13)
TE Will Mallory (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Xavier Restrepo (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Key'Shawn Smith (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Grays
Grays covers college football for RotoWire by night and is a Financial Analyst by day.
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