This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
I'm going to try something a little new today – placing my bets using historical data. It's not something I often reference, but I do want to highlight that you can look at the data on our website here. We have games going back to 2017. With a few extreme numbers on today's slate, I thought it would be fun to give it a trial run.
Thunder to cover +14 points at 76ers + over 206.5 points parlay (+264)
Magic to cover +13.5 points at Jazz + over 225.5 points parlay (+273) – WynnBet, 2:07 PM CT
So, here's the logic with this one: Home teams favored by between 12-16 points since 2017 are 156-168-9 (46.8%) against the spread. Meanwhile, those games have an over/under mark of 183-149-1 (55.0% to the over). History says we should take the road dog and the over on both these games.
Timberwolves to cover +3.5 at Bulls + over 240.5 parlay (+264) – WynnBet, 2:12 PM CT
Just taking the Wolves here is the smarter best based on previous outcomes. Home teams have struggled in games that had an over/under between 238-242, going 44-64-3 (39.6%) ATS since 2017. Surprisingly, the over has also hit more times than not, going 59-50-2 (53.2%). We'll toss it into a parlay just for fun.
Jarrett Allen over 25+ points and rebounds plus Cavs to cover at IND (+171) - 1:40 PM CT
This slate is going to be especially funky following a wild NBA trade deadline, but I do think we can safely assume the Cavs are more or less the team they've been all season. Whether or not they can run through a Pacers team they just beat by 13 five nights ago is interesting, but given there's likely to be some chemistry issues at least early on for Indiana, I'll lean the direction of the Cavs. Should they cover, I expect Allen will be a big reason why making a parlay the perfect play.