FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

After an exciting semifinal-round classic against the Bucks, the Celtics arrive in South Florida on only 48 hours of rest and carrying a two-game winning streak into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The extra three days of rest Miami has on Boston could well be a factor Tuesday, especially in the second half. 

With just one game on the ledger, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters, which are comprised as follows: 

·  MVP- (Garners points at 2x the normal rate)

·  STAR- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)

·  PRO- (Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)

·  Two Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate) 

With the pricing also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding key value plays for the two utility spots is undoubtedly key, as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers. 

Slate Overview

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-1.5) (Projected total: 204.0 points): 

The Heat's narrow projected advantage could arguably be considered a bit of a surprise, considering the aforementioned rest edge and the fact Marcus Smart is listed as questionable for Boston due to a foot injury. Additionally, it's worth noting Miami had a similar scenario in Game 1 of their quarterfinal-round series against the Hawks and trampled Atlanta by a 115-91 score. The Heat also got the best of the 76ers at FTX Arena in the opening salvo of their semifinal-round battle, notching a 106-92 victory. 

Positional Breakdown

FanDuel single-game rosters don't have traditional positions that match those on a starting five, so we'll instead break down some candidates for the top three multiplier positions instead: 

MVP (2x): Jayson Tatum ($15,500) and Jimmy Butler ($15,000) are the top two candidates for this multiplier spot based on their upside, and each is coming off an outstanding semifinal round. 

Tatum averaged 50.8 FD points across 40.8 minutes over the last four games against the Bucks, shooting 47.5 percent in that span. The star forward's usage was unsurprisingly through the roof, as he averaged 24.8 shot attempts per game in the sample. 

Butler took on the similar workhorse role for the Heat against the 76ers, and he put up 52.8 FD points with the help of 54.5 percent shooting in the last five games of that series. Butler also played well in two games against Boston during the regular season, averaging 22.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 steal while shooting 48.5 percent. 

STAR (1.5x): Whichever of the two mega-stars mentioned above doesn't make your MVP spot is naturally the prime candidate here, but a case could also reasonably be made for Jaylen Brown ($13,000), Al Horford ($12,500) or Bam Adebayo ($12,000). 

Brown was more of a complementary source of offense next to Tatum against Milwaukee, but he still averaged 39.5 FD points on 50.0 percent shooting, including 46.2 percent from distance, during the last six games. He complemented his 23.7 points per game with 7.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He was effective against the Heat in three regular-season meetings too, averaging 24.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.0 steal while draining 47.8 percent of his three-point attempts. 

Horford found a way to contribute meaningfully in every game against the Bucks, even when his offensive contributions were way down. For the series, the veteran floor-spacer averaged 39.9 FD points on the strength of a very well-balanced line of 13.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.3 steals. Horford also shot 49.3 percent, and he averaged a double-double of 10.0 points and 10.3 rebounds in three games against the Heat this past regular season. 

Adebayo had a couple of down games in the semifinal round while dealing with Joel Embiid, but he averaged a solid 32.7 FD points per game for the series. Robert Williams will be back for the Celtics on Tuesday night, however, so Adebayo's path to production could certainly have its challenges. 

PRO (1.2x): Whichever of the trio mentioned for the STAR position is certainly a consideration for this spot, as are Marcus Smart ($11,500) and Max Strus ($11,000)

Smart's status will naturally have to be monitored carefully ahead of tip-off, but if he's active, he makes for a solid play at his salary after scoring between 35.4 and 38.4 FD points in three of the last four games against the Bucks. However, it's worth noting he struggled with efficiency against the Heat during the regular season, shooting just 36.7 percent. 

Strus is also sporting a questionable tag because of a hamstring injury, but that's been the norm for him most of the postseason. The sharpshooter finished the series against the 76ers with a hot hand, averaging 35.1 FD points over the last two games while shooting 48.1 percent, including 40.0 percent from behind the arc. 

Injury Situations to Monitor 

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Marcus Smart, BOS (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Smart were to sit out, Derrick White would likely draw the start at point guard. 

Max Strus, MIA (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE 

If Strus were to miss Tuesday's game, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo would presumably see extra opportunity. 

Other notable injuries:

Kyle Lowry, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

P.J. Tucker, MIA (calf): QUESTIONABLE 

Gabe Vincent, MIA (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE 

Caleb Martin, MIA (ankle): QUESTIONABLE 

Elite Players 

The two healthy highest-salaried players on the slate are Jayson Tatum ($15,500) and Jimmy Butler ($15,000). As already detailed in Positional Breakdown section, each player is capable of elite production and each should see very heavy usage Tuesday. 

Expected Chalk 

With only one game on the ledger, the likes of Jaylen Brown ($13,000), Al Horford ($12,500), Bam Adebayo ($12,000), Marcus Smart ($11,500) and Max Strus ($11,000) should also be very popular. 

Key Values 

Note: On a multi-game slate, I typically try to highlight players that would be considered under-the-radar plays in this section. Naturally, with such a limited player pool, there will be very few low-rostered players that are likely to also be viable from a DFS perspective, so I'll instead focus on two of the best candidates to provide a strong return relative to salary for the two Utility spots in single-game lineups: 

Tyler Herro, MIA ($10,500) 

Herro battled an ankle injury at times during the semifinal round, but he's presumably close to or at full health after some extra time off coming into this series. The third-year guard has been a bit up and down with his production, making him more of a tournament play. Herro contributed a pair of tallies of greater than 30 FD points against the Sixers and 27.5 in another outing, and he's averaging 25.7 FD points across 28 minutes over the course of the postseason. Herro also shot 47.5 percent, including 44.2 percent from three-point range, in 34 home games this season, furthering his case. 

Grant Williams, BOS ($9,000) 

Like Herro, Williams can break out for a spike performance without warning, as he just proved in Sunday's Game 7 win over the Bucks. The 2019 first-round pick bounced back from three straight sub-par efforts to rack up 39.2 FD points on a team-high 27 points, and he also produced tallies of 30 and 27.2 FD points in Games 2 and 3 against Milwaukee. Williams was also a more efficient offensive performance on the road this past regular season, shooting 48.6 percent, including 42.2 percent from three-point range. 

Other value plays to consider: Robert Williams, BOS ($8,500)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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