Elvis Andrus

Stolen bases are a funny stat. Andrus swiped at least 20 bases in each of his first nine major-league seasons, only to drop to five in an injury-scarred 2018. Last season he topped the 30-steal mark for the first time since 2013, as a 30-year-old. New manager Chris Woodward believed in Andrus enough to allow him to attempt 39 steals last year, and he was rewarded in that confidence 31 times. The 20-homer season of 2017 was an anomaly for Andrus, as he's reached double digits in that category only one other time and that was last season. His skill set is rather stable at this stage of his career in terms of his bat-to-ball skills. He does not accept many walks, which limits his OBP and stolen-base opportunities. Sometimes we see that change with age, but it has not changed in nearly 7,000 career plate appearances. Expect more of the same.

After smacking eight home runs in 2016, Andrus exploded for 20 homers in 2017. That uptick in power, combined with nine consecutive seasons of 20-plus stolen bases, made Andrus a top-60 pick on average in the NFBC. Unfortunately, Andrus was hit by a pitch in April and suffered an elbow fracture which cost him more than two months, and the power simply never returned. More confoundingly, he stopped running almost entirely, attempting a mere eight steals in 97 games. His batting average also plummeted and in the end, Andrus wasn't even a top-40 player at his own position. At 30 years of age, Andrus still has the speed to get back to 20 steals, but a lot will depend on new manager Chris Woodward's tendencies in the running game. There's also the question as to whether the batting average will return, which doesn't seem like a lock (.239 xBA). What is for sure is that Andrus will continue to play every day.

Through his first eight seasons in the majors, Andrus' speed, contact skills and prominent presence in traditionally potent Rangers lineups made him a bankable three-category asset. The same held true in 2017 with Andrus hitting .297, stealing 25 bases and scoring 100 runs, but it was the shortstop's emergence as a slugger that elevated him to the top tier at his position. Andrus first teased a power breakout in the second half of 2016 with a strong .148 ISO, but kept it up last season by parlaying a 30.5 percent hard-hit rate (six points above his career mark) into 68 extra-base hits, good for second among all shortstops. With Andrus at the peak of the aging curve, there's reason to believe he'll maintain the newfound pop for a couple more years, which would help compensate for any decline in baserunning. Given Andrus' track record of durability, however, he may be more immune to the sudden crash in steals many speed merchants endure around his age.

The chief difference between Andrus' 2015 and 2016 seasons was the 44-point batting average bump and 50-point bump in batting average on balls in play, both winding up as career bests. Considering little changed in his batted-ball profile, the biggest difference maker likely was good luck. Andrus isn't much of a mystery at age 28 and 5,203 plate appearances: He doesn't offer much power, but he'll chew up plate appearances with 20-plus stolen bases, with his batting average up to what happens when he puts wood on the ball on the back of high contact rates. Frankly, he's also fortunate he plays for the Rangers, an offense who'll bolster run and RBI potential for every regular. Considering he often hits low in the order, however, his value depends too much on what he can't control. While those seeking a middle infielder in mixed leagues can settle for him, he likely reached his ceiling this past year, so it's not worth chasing more.

Andrus set a career high with seven homers in 2015, one more than he had in his rookie season back in 2009, but it wasn't enough to save him from a third straight disappointing season. He's had three straight declines in OPS+ and it's looking more and more like we have already seen the best Andrus has to offer. His .283 BABIP from last year gives some modest hope to a mini-rebound, but he appears to have settled in as a 60-run/60-RBI/5-homer/25-steal type. That kind of production is still plenty valuable — in fact, he finished 10th among all shortstops in rotisserie value and fourth among AL shortstops. Just do not overpay, as the ceiling is established at this point.

In a season where the Rangers' regulars were dogged by a wide variety of injuries, Andrus managed to stay healthy and play 157 games – his fourth consecutive year eclipsing 150 contests. The eight-year extension that he signed with Texas in 2013 will just begin to kick in this season, leaving the Rangers on the hook to pay him $120 million through 2022. It's possible that he'll be shipped elsewhere before a limited no-trade clause kicks in on his deal in 2016, but it's a long commitment to a player whose offense and defense regressed in a year where he turned 26 in August. The plate discipline and batted ball profile are stable with Andrus, yet his OBP dipped for the second year in a row to a career-worst .314. To make matters worse, the lack of healthy regulars around him bottomed out his runs scored and RBI counts to their lowest levels since 2009. He should be able to return to his 2013 levels and it's difficult to buy into the idea that his defense is truly in decline. If he can approach his steals total (42) from two seasons ago, Andrus should be a profitable target in many leagues this season.

Andrus had his worst year at the plate since 2010, though a career-high 42 stolen bases took some sting out of his .271/.328/.331 line. He was much better after the All-Star break, however, largely fueled by a BABIP normalization from an unlucky first half. The trade of Ian Kinsler keeps Andrus in Texas for the long haul, or at least another year or two until Rougned Odor might be ready. He'll become a $15 million player starting in 2015, so Texas would like to see some advancement at the plate in what's been a pretty flat career trajectory thus far.

A team-wide reduction in stolen-base attempts the final two months put a large dent in Andrus' value for the season as he swipped just 21 bags after 37 the year prior. His early-season power uptick (26 extra-base hits prior to the All-Star break) faded down the stretch (17 after the break), as did his run production (just 34 runs scored and five steals the second half) while Texas limped to the finish line. He's a good bet for a bounceback season in the counting stats, though expect some trade rumors to surface with Texas holding the Jurickson Profar card in its back pocket.

Andrus improved upon his 2010 season, adding 60 points of slugging and cutting back on his strikeouts while posting a career-high 87 percent contact rate, but there's still little value here beyond his stolen-base totals. It's worth noting that Andrus' plate discipline improved as the season progressed and he actually walked more than he struck out (35:29 BB:K) after the All-Star break. Those in more advanced leagues that count OBP and SLG need to knock Andrus down several notches, though he should still be among the American League's best at the position regardless of your scoring system.

Andrus followed his rookie campaign with another solid season, scoring 88 runs, swiping 32 bases and drawing 64 walks as a 21-year-old. Elvis never left the building, however, failing to hit a home run in 588 at-bats and seeing his modest power all but evaporate (just 18 extra-base hits all season, resulting in a .301 slugging). His numbers after the All-Star break (.247/.318/.274, 23 walks and six extra base hits in 259 at-bats) were a marked drop from his early-season numbers, and there's some thought that pitchers will start pounding the strike zone against him since there's no real threat of anything more damaging than a single. He'll have solid value in traditional 4x4 or 5x5 leagues with his stolen-base potential at a scarce position, but those in more advanced leagues that count OBP and SLG want to be careful here.

Andrus took over as Texas' everyday shortstop following the team's request to have Michael Young shift to third base last January. His .702 OPS left something to be desired, but his 33 steals and 72 runs scored offered plenty of value in an eroding shortstop position in the AL. His road numbers (.238/.294/.325) were poor, but he showed some growth as the season progressed (.737 OPS post-break). He'll hit ninth in the order again in 2010 with Julio Borbon and Ian Kinsler slotted atop the Texas lineup, but he more than held his own making the jump from Double-A as a 20-year-old, and the future appears bright.

Andrus still has some problems to iron out (too many strikeouts, not much power) but it's hard to get too picky when a 19-year-old spends the year at Double-A and doesn't get buried. He swiped 54 bases in 70 attempts, and managed a nice .295/.350/.367 line over the course of the season. The power should start to come as he fills out. He'll see some time at Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, and could see a September callup as a result.

Andrus was acquired in the trade that sent Mark Teixeira to Atlanta, and gives Texas a legit shortstop prospect again now that Joaquin Arias has continued to fade. Like Arias before him, Andrus' numbers on the surface appear to be lacking (.244/.330/.335 at High-A Myrtle Beach), but start to look a bit better when you consider Andrus just turned 19 years old in August. He hit well, albeit with little pop, during the Arizona Fall League (.353/.411/.471) and should see time at Double-A Frisco in 2008.

Andrus' numbers at Low-A Rome (.265/.324/.362) may not seem that impressive, until you realize he was just 17 years old. As a result, he's considered the top shortstop prospect in the Atlanta system. He's already got a strong glove and scouts think he'll continue to improve at the plate due to his athleticism. He's several years away from making an impact, but a long-term keeper to grab.

Andrus hit .295/.377/.398 at just age 17 in rookie ball and is seen as a polished fielder. Given his age and high ceiling, he has climbed quickly on many prospect charts. He's a few years away from making an impact at the major league level, but could rise rapidly in the system.