Jon Gray

Jon Gray

30-Year-Old PitcherSP
Texas Rangers
Day-To-Day
Injury Knee
2022 Fantasy Outlook
An often tantalizing thought, Gray leaving Coors Field has finally come to fruition as he signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Rangers in November. Gray posted a serviceable 4.54 ERA with roughly a strikeout per inning at altitude during his career with the Rockies and now will pitch his home games in a much more pitcher-friendly environment at Globe Life Field. Gray's velocity peaked in July of 2021, but he picked up an injury and wasn't the same thereafter. There would seem to be some potential upside in his new home as Gray has a fine fastball/slider combination. The right-hander is worth a look outside the top 200 in drafts now that he's shed the purple and black, but it's still best to view him as a streamer until further notice. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#234
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Rangers in November of 2021.
Ready for Monday's start
PTexas Rangers
Knee
May 15, 2022
Gray (knee) threw a bullpen session without issues Saturday and is projected to start Monday against the Angels, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Gray, who left his last start against the Yankees when he felt "something" in his left knee, will wear a brace but is under no restrictions, per Texas manager Chris Woodward.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
71
Last 10 Games
71
Last 5 Games
71
How many pitches does Jon Gray generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Jon Gray generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-46%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .237 499 99 47 105 20 6 18
Since 2020vs Right .267 387 95 29 93 18 1 11
2022vs Left .143 23 6 2 3 0 0 1
2022vs Right .263 45 9 5 10 1 0 1
2021vs Left .235 369 79 38 76 14 5 11
2021vs Right .258 275 78 20 64 13 0 10
2020vs Left .265 107 14 7 26 6 1 6
2020vs Right .306 67 8 4 19 4 1 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
Even Split
2022
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-23%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-55%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 5.07 1.21 103.0 6 8 0 8.2 3.0 1.6
Since 2020Away 5.06 1.47 101.1 4 9 0 8.9 3.7 1.0
2022Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Away 5.51 1.22 16.1 0 1 0 8.3 3.9 1.1
2021Home 4.02 1.15 78.1 5 5 0 9.2 3.6 1.4
2021Away 5.22 1.53 70.2 3 7 0 9.8 3.4 1.1
2020Home 8.39 1.42 24.2 1 3 0 5.1 1.1 2.2
2020Away 3.77 1.47 14.1 1 1 0 5.0 5.0 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Jon Gray compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.14
 
K/9
8.3
 
BB/9
3.9
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
94.8 mph
 
ERA
5.51
 
WHIP
1.22
 
BABIP
.262
 
GB/FB
1.83
 
Left On Base
58.1%
 
Exit Velocity
80.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.1%
 
Spin Rate
2098 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.6%
 
Swinging Strike
10.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Jon Gray
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2 days ago
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6 days ago
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7 days ago
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Knock on Woodruff
9 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as two-start Brandon Woodruff is looking good after a rough opener.
MLB: Early-Season Changes With Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan and Tommy Edman
20 days ago
Corbin Young takes a look at some surprising early results and the changes driving them. Is Tommy Edman's power spike legitimate? Can Mitch Keller follow up last week's strong showing against Milwaukee?
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Gray's ERA estimators had been quite consistent over the past five seasons, but he took a significant step back over a smaller sample in 2020 with a 5.68 xFIP and 5.58 SIERA. He missed the final month of the season due to right shoulder inflammation, and the injury could have helped contribute to some of his struggles. His hard-hit rate has crept up over the past two seasons, and he had 42.4% of his batted balls hit above 95 mph in 2020, which is especially concerning at Coors Field. His strikeout rate also plummeted to a career-worst 12.6 K%, the first time the mark fell below 20%. Gray had been slightly better at home than he had been on the road recently, but he struggled mightily in the altitude in 2020, posting an 8.39 ERA at home versus a 3.77 ERA on the road. His injury and a smaller sample inflated his numbers in 2020, but the 29-year-old is a much riskier fantasy option than he's been in the past.
Depending on what ERA estimator you favor, Gray has either been the same guy the past several years or the same guy with 2019 being a slight step backwards. Over his five-year career, Gray's xFIP has ranged from 3.45-3.89 while his SIERA has been 3.68-4.35. In both instances, the highest mark was last season, despite Gray's actual 3.89 ERA. Thus is the variability of ERA, especially in Coors Field. The three major accessible estimators -- FIP, xFIP and SIERA -- peg Gray's expected career ERA at 3.77, 3.62, 3.97. In context, Gray is a true-talent 3.30 guy saddled with working half his games at altitude. Aside from the variability, Gray's durability is a concern with just one season of 30 starts. The temptation is to draft him for strikeouts and stream on the road, but Gray's home splits are better than on the road. Some avoid Coors Field at all costs, others welcome the hefty discount. Take your pick.
Gray came out after the season to state his 2018 struggles were due to unspecified health issues that caused him to lose 20 pounds and also some of his velocity. He had a 5.44 ERA in the first half despite a strong 21.6 K-BB%. The struggles earned him a midseason demotion, and when he returned, his ERA dropped nearly a full run, but his K-BB dropped to 11.8%. Gray's issues were exacerbated when runners were on base as the league hit .297/.379/.506 against him when anyone was on base compared to a .242/.286/.417 line with the bases empty. That was not the case in 2017 when the league hit .230/.302/.365 against Gray with runners on base. A simple return to previous levels of health and velocity should get him back on the right track as the underlying skills are there. The struggles while pitching with runners on base were simply too much to overcome in 2018. It is a fixable issue, and the Coors Field factor should keep his price down.
The initial response to Gray is that we must ding him because he pitches in Colorado. What if you knew that over the past two seasons, he has held the league to a .238 average in Coors and has a 3.89 ERA there? Gray has now pitched two seasons in Colorado with at least 100 innings of work and his overall home run rate has been below 1.0 HR/9 in each season. That speaks to the quality of his stuff and how tough he is to square up when he is commanding all of his pitches. The addition of a better curveball in 2017 helped him take another step forward, but the next step is avoiding the disabled list as he has yet to make 30 starts in a season (20 last season). Rostering Gray is not as risky as is the case with most Colorado pitchers. He could come at a bargain in mixed leagues due to his zip code.
In his first full season in the big league rotation, Gray took strides toward becoming the frontline arm the Rockies were hoping for when they selected him with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He improved on many fronts, raising his K/9 to an outstanding 9.9, increasing his GB/FB ratio to 1.65 and upping the average velocity of his fastball above 95 mph. Walk rate was one of the few areas that saw a slight regression, as his BB/9 increased ever so slightly to 3.2. His ERA, although improved from 2015, still sat at a less than desirable 4.61, although his 3.60 FIP suggests luck wasn't on his side. All in all, 2016 was a step forward for Gray, and at only 24 years old, he should continue to progress as he works toward being the top gun in the Rockies rotation. Coors Field will never be his friend, but he was actually better at home (3.16 FIP) than on the road (4.05 FIP) last season, suggesting that he is capable of handling the thin Rocky Mountain air.
The default with Colorado pitchers is to look at the home/road splits and try to ascertain how much Coors Field impacted his numbers. Occam's Razor suggests the most straightforward answer, so we look at the splits and see an 8.27 ERA at home (21 innings) and a 2.70 ERA on the road (20 innings) in near-equal samples. His fastball and changeup were obliterated at home to the tune of a combined 1.158 OPS in 86 plate appearances, versus a .678 OPS in 59 plate appearances on the road. The necessary caveats apply to a 41-inning sample, but it's not surprising that his stuff is less effective in Denver. It's just always going to be a problem for Colorado pitchers. We'll get seasons here and there, but long-term fantasy relevance at Coors Field seems impossible. It's not just the thin air, either, honestly it's usually more about the enormous outfield. Throw in the fact that he is slated to miss a month or more with a strained abdominal muscle to start the season, and Gray is best left untouched in standard leagues, until he is able to return and demonstrate his health. At that point he could be a useful streaming option in road starts.
Though their battered rotation presented several openings by midseason, the Rockies resisted the temptation to call up Gray and begin his service clock in the midst of a non-contending year. Gray likely would have forced the Rockies’ hand if he dominated in his first full season in the minors, but he was merely only very good at Double-A Tulsa, submitting a 3.91 ERA and 14.2 K%-BB% over 124.1 innings. It won’t preclude him from competing for an Opening Day starting gig with the Rockies this spring, but the organization probably prefers to give him a little more time in the minors to raise his performance before joining the big club later in the season and assuming his destiny as an anchor in their rotation. Having Coors Field as his eventual home park dampens Gray’s appeal more than most prospects of his caliber because of the expected ERA and WHIP hits, but the right-hander probably has a rosier fantasy outlook than the Rockies’ other highly-touted hurler, Eddie Butler, on the basis of his stronger strikeout rates.
After he was drafted third overall in the first-year player draft in June, Gray immediately made a splash on the professional stage. He was quickly advanced through rookie ball and proceeded to breeze through his five California League starts, going 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 36:6 K:BB ratio over 24 innings. With starting pitching being a sore spot for the organization practically since its inception, the Rockies have made it known they intend to fast-track Gray’s development, making a deployment to Double-A Tulsa or Triple-A Colorado Springs out of spring training a distinct possibility for the ascendant right-hander. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Gray possesses the ideal frame for a power pitcher and the repertoire to match. With a fastball that routinely touches the upper-90s to go along with his plus-slider, Gray projects as a high-volume strikeout artist at the next level and he should already attract attention in dynasty formats.
More Fantasy News
Likely to make next start
PTexas Rangers
Knee
May 10, 2022
Rangers manager Chris Woodward said Tuesday that he expects Gray (knee) to make his next start, Levi Weaver of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Knee soreness ends start early
PTexas Rangers
Knee
May 9, 2022
The Rangers announced Gray's early exit from his start Monday against the Yankees was due to left knee soreness.
ANALYSIS
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Exits with trainer
PTexas Rangers
Undisclosed
May 9, 2022
Gray left his start Monday against the Yankees with a team trainer, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Start shifts back
PTexas Rangers
May 7, 2022
Gray will start Monday's game against the Yankees, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Starts opener Sunday
PTexas Rangers
May 7, 2022
Gray will start the first game of Sunday's doubleheader against the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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