Luke Jackson

Luke Jackson

30-Year-Old PitcherRP
Atlanta Braves
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 7/1/2023
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Jackson was a good illustration of how difficult projecting reliever performance on a yearly basis can be. After posting a 6.84 ERA in 2020, Jackson posted a career-best 1.98 ERA paired with 31 holds in 2021. A 90.2% left on base rate was in part responsible for the excellent numbers, but Jackson still posted a combination of skills that often lead to success for relievers. He managed a 26.8 K% while also limiting opposing hitters to a 0.9 HR/9 thanks to a 52.5 GB%. While Jackson was trusted in a high-leverage role, his 11.1 BB% is a significant blemish in his skill profile that has largely prevented him from picking up saves throughout his career. He gained increased competition for late-inning work when Atlanta signed Kenley Jansen in mid-March, and Jackson will miss significant time after being diagnosed with a torn UCL in early April. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#597
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $3.6 million contract with the Braves in May of 2022.
Loses arbitration case
PAtlanta Braves
Elbow
May 19, 2022
Jackson (elbow) will receive a $3.6 million contract for 2022 after losing his arbitration case with Atlanta on Thursday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Jackson suffered a torn UCL late in spring training and underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April. The right-hander will miss the entire 2022 season and should also be unavailable early in 2023.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2022
No Stats
2021
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-22%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .252 163 29 24 34 9 0 0
Since 2020vs Right .228 220 61 17 45 4 0 7
2022vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021vs Left .196 109 24 16 18 6 0 0
2021vs Right .200 152 46 13 27 3 0 6
2020vs Left .372 54 5 8 16 3 0 0
2020vs Right .290 68 15 4 18 1 0 1
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
Even Split
2022
No Stats
2021
 
 
-1%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.40 1.11 45.0 2 1 0 9.2 2.6 0.8
Since 2020Away 3.40 1.69 45.0 2 1 0 8.8 5.8 0.8
2022Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021Home 1.97 0.91 32.0 1 1 0 9.8 2.5 0.8
2021Away 1.99 1.42 31.2 1 1 0 9.9 5.7 0.9
2020Home 6.92 1.62 13.0 1 0 0 7.6 2.8 0.7
2020Away 6.75 2.33 13.1 1 0 0 6.1 6.1 0.7
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luke Jackson
Closer Encounters: 2022 Closer Rankings 2.0
59 days ago
Ryan Rufe updates his closer rankings as fantasy drafts hit the home stretch. How much does the needle move on Blake Treinen?
Closer Encounters: Diving Deeper in St. Louis & Atlanta
79 days ago
Ryan Rufe analyzes various closer situations, including in Atlanta where proceeding with caution might be wise when it comes to Will Smith.
The Z Files: Setting Up Better Staffs
195 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at the impact of changes in pitcher usage on fantasy staffs and finds it's becoming increasingly necessary to roster top middle relievers such as Devin Williams.
Playoff Primer: The Rankings
229 days ago
Todd Zola ranks players by position for fantasy playoff leagues. Chicago's Jose Abreu is tough to beat at first base.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2017
2016
2015
2014
If you are still new to the fantasy game, there is a concept in baseball known as reliever volatility. The concept is that a reliever can go from dominance to irrelevance in a flash. There are many examples of this, with Jackson being a very recent example. In 2019, Jackson struck out 33.7% of the hitters he faced with an elite 25.4 K-BB% looking every bit like a reliever ready to take the next step. He had a rough summer which translated into a bad 2020 where his strikeout rate fell to 15.2% and that elite K-BB% plunged 20 full percentage points. This past season's problems were all about awful outcomes with his primary pitch, the slider, although the actual BA on the pitch (.358) was well above the expected average of .267. He fell behind in too many counts and had to overuse his hittable four-seamer, thus the quick change from high- to low-leverage work.
Jackson was in the 90th percentile for his fastball velocity and strikeout rate in 2019, and the Braves believed in him so much they went out and traded for Shane Greene and Chris Martin and gave native Georgian Will Smith a big three-year deal. Jackson throws with a lot of velocity, but it's his slider that makes or breaks him. He blew seven of his 25 save chances last year, serving up 10 home runs in 72.2 innings of work. That is what ultimately did him in -- the increased velocity and the improved walk rate from 2018 were nice to see, but closers simply cannot allow home runs at a high rate and expect to keep their job on a contending ballclub. That, and the problems Jackson has had against righties despite the great slider. Reverse splits aren't a thing, but Jackson is certainly trying to disprove that. Kiss goodbye to the saves.
Jackson was expected to compete for a spot in the Rangers bullpen out of spring training, but some recurring back problems held him out for the bulk of the spring slate, leaving the Rangers brass no choice but to send him back to the minors. He performed well during his time at Triple-A Round Rock, piecing together a 2.45 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 22 innings out of the bullpen. This helped him garner a couple of brief cups of coffee in Arlington, although he pitched horrifically against major league hitters. In 11.2 innings, the electric 25-year-old was shelled for 14 runs on 22 hits (four home runs) while compiling a dreary 3:8 K:BB, leading to a demotion all the way to Double-A Frisco. Jackson has a lot of life on his mid-90s fastball, but his below-average command and control have limited his ability to compete for a high-leverage role thus far. The Braves saw an opportunity to swap declining assets with Texas this offseason, acquiring Jackson in a deal that sent another failed prospect, Tyrell Jenkins, to the Rangers. The trade should offer Jackson a better chance to break camp in the majors, given the Braves' lack of quality bullpen depth.
Jackson began the year at Triple-A, where he posted a decent performance that was a big improvement from his disastrous debut at Round Rock in 2014, where he was converted to relief after five poor starts to the season. Jackson's plus fastball and shaky command seemed to always hint at a reliever role, and it appears that Texas has elected to go that route. He made seven appearances out of the Texas bullpen in 2015, and it will be difficult for him to carve out an Opening Day roster spot in a bullpen that already features Shawn Tolleson, Sam Dyson, Keone Kela and the newly-acquired Tom Wilhelmsen from the right-side.
The 6-foot-2 righty enjoyed a 3.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a 83:24 K:BB ratio in 83.1 innings at Double-A Frisco, but that excitement was short lived, as Jackson gave up 46 earned runs in 40 innings (10.35 ERA) following his promotion to Triple-A Round Rock. His HR/9 rate quadrupled and his BABIP ballooned to almost .400, so there was some bad luck involved with his disastrous turn at Round Rock, but posting a career-high 13.9% walk rate did not help matters. The stretch at Frisco was the best run of Jackson’s career, and it’s likely that his performance at Round Rock simply qualifies as a minor setback. A strong start to 2015 at Triple-A could place him in the Rangers’ rotation this summer. Entering his age-23 season, Jackson still possesses a fastball that borders on double-plus, with a curveball and changeup that also have plus potential, so the worst-case scenario here is that he ends up pitching the eighth or ninth inning in Arlington.
Jackson began the year repeating a stint at High-A, but ended the year with 27 innings at Double-A Frisco. There are questions about the repeatable nature of his high-effort delivery, and some related questions about the consistency of his breaking pitches as a result, which could limit his future to a late-inning option out of the bullpen. It's a role that he might eventually pitch his way into, but he'll be given every opportunity to succeed in the rotation first. He's expected to begin the year in the rotation at Double-A Frisco.
More Fantasy News
Gets Tommy John surgery
PAtlanta Braves
Elbow
April 13, 2022
Atlanta announced Wednesday that Jackson underwent Tommy John surgery Wednesday in Arlington, Texas.
ANALYSIS
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Lands on 60-day IL with torn UCL
PAtlanta Braves
Elbow
April 3, 2022
Jackson (elbow) was placed on the 60-day injured list Sunday with a torn UCL.
ANALYSIS
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Dealing with UCL damage
PAtlanta Braves
Forearm
April 2, 2022
Jackson (forearm) recently underwent an MRI that revealed damage to his UCL.
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Uncertain for Opening Day
PAtlanta Braves
Forearm
March 31, 2022
Jackson (forearm) completed a 10-pitch bullpen session Thursday, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
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Dealing with forearm tightness
PAtlanta Braves
Forearm
March 28, 2022
Jackson is day-to-day with forearm tightness, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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