DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown

DraftKings MLB: Saturday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

As usual, we have a limited Saturday night slate. However, it remains the featured group of games, so we'll stick with it for our breakdown. There are a handful of fairly obvious pitchers to target, which could make it trickier to build differently than chalk.

Pitchers

It's a night to pick between higher quality pitchers in poor matchups versus inferior ones in advantageous spots. Logan Gilbert ($9,900) and Max Fried ($8,600) are among two of the better on the slate in terms of skills, but they face the Angels and Dodgers. Fried boasts the lowest SIERA but faces a Dodgers' lineup among the best in the league. Gilbert faces the Angels, who are an above-average lineup but also strike out at a high clip. For that reason, I'd lean toward Gilbert. 

Logan Webb ($7,800) likely strikes the best balance between talent and strength of opponent. He offers a strikeout rate of just over 21 percent, but he's at his lowest salary point since Opening Day and draws a matchup against a Cincinnati side with the league's second-lowest wOBA on the road.

Mitch White ($6,100) is a nice punt play. Atlanta has a lineup comparable to that of the Dodgers in terms of wOBA and he's maintained a 3.46 SIERA in the big leagues this season. White also boasts a near 25 percent strikeout rate, but enters with the second-lowest value among pitchers on Saturday.

Top Hitters

Blake Snell hasn't pitched well since being activated from the injured list. That hasn't been because of home runs, but he's still produced an 8.8 percent barrel rate against. Between that and his walk rate of 13 percent, a lot of Phillies are in a good spot to produce - particularly Rhys Hoskins ($4,700) and Nick Castellanos ($3,800).

I like both sides of the Philadelphia-San Diego game for offense. Zach Eflin is battling through a knee injury, but is making his scheduled start anyways. He may not be fully healthy and has already given up 1.1 HR/9 on the season. Jake Cronenworth ($5,200) has batted either second or third in the order in the absence of Manny Machado and is carrying a 1.010 OPS over his last 10 games.

Value Hitters

Alex Kirilloff ($3,200) has hit fifth in the Twins' lineup in four of the team's last six games. He also appears to be healthy while collecting three extra-base hits during that span. The Twins take on Antonio Senzatela, who's only managed an 11.3 percent strikeout rate on the campaign.

Darin Ruf ($3,000) has a trio of things going for him. He squares off against Mike Minor, who's given up at least four earned runs in three of his four starts this year. Minor is a lefty, and Ruf has hit southpaws to the tune of a .371 wOBA this season and .393 for his career. Ruf also bats in the top third of the Giants' order with the handedness advantage on most nights.

Alek Thomas ($2,900) is hitting his stride in the Majors averaging 9.5 DK points across his last 10 games. He's also shifted up to second in Arizona's order, and there's been no appreciable rise in his salary to account for these changes.

Stacks to Consider

Phillies vs. Padres (Blake Snell): Rhys Hoskins ($4,700), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Bryce Harper ($5,700)

Snell has walked a whopping 13 percent of the batters he's faced this season, which makes him an ideal target to stack against. He hasn't given up many barreled balls, but has surrendered a lot of hard contact with over 50 percent twice in his last three starts. The Phillies boast the bats to take advantage of Snell's poor form, and I'd also be happy to include J.T. Realmuto in the stack. 

Giants vs. Reds (Mike Minor): Austin Slater ($2,900), Wilmer Flores ($3,700), Darin Ruf ($3,000)

Minor has given up seven home runs across 20 innings. To put that in perspective, he's given up more long balls than Logan Gilbert, Max Fried and Logan Webb - all of whom have thrown over 80 frames this season. The other nice thing about the Giants stack is that it's cheap, particularly because they flip their lineup with lefties on the mound and DraftKings doesn't account for that in its valuation.

Twins vs. Rockies (Antonio Senzatela): Carlos Correa ($5,400), Max Kepler ($4,900), Alex Kirilloff ($3,200)

Senzatela has done a fine job of suppressing hard contact for most of the season, but he gives up so much contact that some of it is bound to do damage. Target Field is no Coors Field, but it does list a Top-10 park factor for enhancing run-scoring this year. The Twins are in a nice position as a result, and hitters in the lineup also check-in at fairly reasonable salaries.  

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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