This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a decent nine-game slate for a Monday, with a lot of strong spots to target hitters. As usual, when that's the case it may be time to look for ways to pivot, particularly away from the Coors Field game.
I'm willing to jump past the elite tier of pitching Monday, but there's a lot of intriguing options in the mid-tiers to highlight. Sonny Gray ($8,500) is the top of that list. He struggled against Colorado his last time out, but he has the second-lowest SIERA on the slate and second-highest strikeout rate among the pitcher pool. A matchup against the Guardians is likely to lead more to a floor rather than ceiling outcome as they strike out at the lowest rate of any team in the league.
Lucas Giolito ($8,300) has been on a terrible run for nearly the past month, but he offers the ceiling — without a floor — that is lacking with Gray. Despite his struggles, Giolito still owns the highest strikeout rate of all pitchers on the mound Monday and owns a 3.69 SIERA. Meanwhile, the Angels are an above-average lineup but strike out at the highest rate of any lineup in the league.
Jordan Montgomery ($8,000) is a nice combination of floor and ceiling that we don't get with Gray or Giolito. He doesn't offer an elite strikeout rate or SIERA, but he has tallied more than 16.5 DK points in five of his last six starts. A matchup against Oakland is the real draw, as they have the lowest wOBA in the league and a top-10 stirkeout rate in the league.
George Kirby ($7,100) is the discount version of Montgomery, and the closest we get to a viable punt play Monday. Since some stumbles early in his big-league tenure, Kirby has posted at least 12.5 DK points in five of his last six starts. He take on the Orioles Monday, who have struck at a top-five rate in the league and bottom eight in both wRC+ and wOBA.
It's pointing out the obvious but playing Dodgers at Coors Field is a strong play. Trea Turner ($6,000) has delivered 13.4 DK points across the last 10 games, and he isn't likely to go cold in such a positive hitting environment.
It's unclear exactly what the Pirates plan to do in terms of their starter Monday night, but it's likely to be either Osvaldo Bido or a bullpen game. Either way, the Nationals bats should be in a good spot to produce, and Nelson Cruz ($3,800) is priced in a way to provide plenty of value with the potential for a lot of raw points as well.
Connor Seabold has pitched quite well in the minors and is a decent prospect in the Red Sox's system. However, I'm willing to bet on the talent in the Jays' lineup against an inexperienced pitcher, with Vladimir Guerrero ($5,600) leading the way.
Alex Kirilloff ($3,100) remains a value. There's little reason to move away from him until DraftKings raises his price point, which they have only done to a limited degree. He and the Twins take on Triston McKenzie, who is a solid pitcher but still has a significant homer problem (1.7 HR/9).
I never thought we'd see the day where Camden Yards was protecting a pitcher, but that appears to be the case for Tyler Wells. He has an 89 percent left-on-base rate at home and is also benefitting from a .203 BABIP. T-Moblie Park is hardly a hitter's haven, but I expect that the Mariners will be able to get Wells for some damage. Kevin Padlo ($2,000) isn't exactly a household name, but he's hit fifth in the lineup in the absence of Ty France and is priced at the minimum.
Josh Donaldson ($3,400) doesn't produce like the top of the Yankees' lineup, but his price point is so far off the likes of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton that he becomes a value. Paul Blackburn has gotten good results this season, and he's far from the worst pitcher on the slate, but the Yankees are a potent offensive team – particularly at home, despite their struggles over the weekend.
Stacks to Consider
This is the obvious play of the day, but it's worth spelling out regardless. Chad Kuhl has survived his time in Colorado with a passable 3.95 ERA, but he has a 4.84 SIERA. He's also had better splits at home than on the road, but I'd be willing to chalk that up to a small sample. This stack will be chalky, and is a prime fade candidate in large-field tournaments as a result.
Bubic put together arguably the best start of his career on his last turn through the rotation, but no one should be counting on that again. He has the highest SIERA of any pitcher in the pool (4.94), which is explained by a 12.6 percent walk rate and 1.6 HR/9. The Rangers are a pretty poor lineup overall, but the top of the order can put together extended rallies and are in a good spot to do so against Bubic.
As was noted earlier, Seabold isn't a bad pitcher on paper. However, I expect the Jays to be able to take advantage of his inexperience and put up runs. This spot could go a bit under the radar due to Seabold's relative pedigree and the amount of attention the Coors Field game is likely to attract. This is a nice pivot to a lineup with a lot of talent jammed in, which should come at a less-rostered rate.