DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

We have a busy week of baseball, and that begins Monday with an atypical 11-game slate. Offense is starting to pick up around the league, which will certainly make all fantasy formats a bit more interesting. 

Pitchers

 Freddy Peralta ($10,500) is the only pitcher – that has thrown exclusively as a starter this season –to post a strikeout rate above 30 percent in the pool. However, he faces a tough Atlanta offense, which is concerning given his lofty price point. 

That said, the alternatives aren't great. Luis Severino ($8,800) is in the opposite position. He's maintained a 25 percent strikeout rate for the season, though he has allowed three home runs across his last 15.2 frames. He's still managed just over 16 DK points in two of those three outings, but his cost hasn't decreased as should be expected. Nevertheless, Baltimore is a far softer matchup than Atlanta (based on wOBA and K%), so I'd be willing to take the risk on Severino over Peralta to save $1,700 in large-field tournaments. 

Sticking in the same tier as Severino, Noah Syndergaard ($8,500) has struggled to get strikeouts but has suppressed runs well this season. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts. There's some upside for punchouts to return, as he has a 12 percent swinging-strike rate and only a 17.5 strikeout rate. He gets a matchup against Texas, who has been one of the least potent offenses early on this season. 

Yusei Kikuchi ($6,600) and Wade Miley ($4,400) are the punt plays of the day. Kikuchi still walks far too many hitters (14.9%) and gives up too many homers (1.4 HR/9). However, he's started with a ridiculous schedule, taking on the Yankees three times, Houston twice and Boston. Seattle has been a mediocre lineup early, but hasn't measured up to the other teams Kikuchi has faced. Miley takes on the Pirates, which is the primary source of his intrigue combined with his price tag. He may not pitch deep enough into the game, but if he makes it to five innings he should have a strong chance to earn the win. 

Top Hitters  

Vladimir Guerrero ($5,800) doesn't have an extra-base hit in any of his last eight games, but the Jays will return home after a lengthy nine-game road trip. Chris Flexen has among the lowest strikeout rates on the slate and has served up 1.3 HR/9 to begin the season. 

Ian Anderson won't be targeted due to his name value, but he has a 4.92 SIERA across 30 innings. We're dealing in small samples, but the Brewers offense has scored six runs per game at home this season, second to only the Rockies. I'm happy to play most Milwaukee hitters as a result, but Rowdy Tellez ($5,500) is reasonably priced relative to the rest of the lineup. 

Kyle Bradish has gotten some buzz in season-long leagues after an 11-strikeout performance in his last start against St. Louis. However, he's served up a home run in each of his three big-league starts, all of which have come at pitcher-friendly parks. As is the case with Milwaukee, I'm happy to play any of the Yankees' studs, but Anthony Rizzo ($5,100) checks in $1,100 cheaper than Aaron Judge.  

Value Hitters 

It's not clear why Julio Rodriguez ($3,200) dipped dramatically in his cost, but I don't see the logic in it. He's a great value play. 

Whether we agree with it or not, Enrique Hernandez ($3,500) is the leadoff hitter in Boston. He's picked up only three hits combined across his last three games, yet has put up 11, 11 and five DK points. Lineup context matters, and he's a prime example. 

Carlos Santana ($2,500) may not be a productive player anymore, but the Royals continue to hit him fourth in the lineup. The White Sox are projected to throw Wes Benjamin on Monday, a 28-year-old Quad-A player who has 45 career big-league innings. 

We saw offense pick up at Coors Field over the weekend, yet Giants' bats are cheap. Pick any number of players for great value, but I'll land on LaMonte Wade ($3,400), who has served in the leadoff role regularly since being activated from the injured list. 

Sticking in Colorado, Yonathan Daza ($2,700) is known more for his defense than bat. However, he's swung a hot bat of late and hasn't seen any increase in price. At Coors Field, I'm willing to take the chance that hot streak continues. 

Top Stacks to Consider

San Francisco Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela: LaMonte Wade ($3,400), Brandon Belt ($4,500), Wilmer Flores ($3,700), Joc Pederson ($4,200)

Senzatela has posted a 4.88 ERA and his statistical profile suggests even those marginal results are luck. He has a minuscule 6.2 K%, and he will now face a contact-oriented team in a park that amplifies bats. The Giants are an easy stack to build around, but the roster rates of these players should be extremely high, so look to get different elsewhere. 

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chris Flexen: George Springer ($4,700), Vladimir Guerrero ($5,800), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,600), Bo Bichette ($5,000)

The Jays' offense hasn't performed to expectation this season, but as noted they will return home after a lengthy nine-game road trip. Unlike the Giants, Toronto's hitters won't be viewed as a value due to their recent slump, so this might be a sneakier stack with a lot of upside. 

Chicago White Sox vs. Brad Keller: Tim Anderson ($4,600), Yoan Moncada ($3,800), Luis Robert ($4,500), Jose Abreu ($5,100)

I like stacking both sides of this game, but truthfully it's a bit easier to tout the White Sox lineup due to some of the big names in their lineup. We know who Brad Keller is at this point, an extreme contact pitcher that needs to induce soft contact/luck. There are signs of offense picking up around the league, meaning his relative success early in the campaign may be coming to an end.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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