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| Recent Blog Post: 2013 W-L Predictions: Money Talks |
Vegas has now posted their win totals and World Series odds for each team, giving the savvy bettor an opportunity to wager before bookmakers can adjust. Even though the first exhibition games have yet to be played, we have a sense as to how teams will perform in 2013. Here are my Win-Loss projections, along with the Vegas lines on Wins, Winning the Pennant, and Winning the World Series, with a few wagers I like thrown in for good measure.
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AL EAST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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New York Yankees
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89
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73
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86.5
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13-2
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+1250
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Tampa Bay Rays
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88
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74
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85
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12-1
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+1600
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Toronto Blue Jays
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83
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79
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86.5
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12-1
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+1600
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Baltimore Orioles
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81
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81
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76.5
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20-1
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+5000
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Boston Red Sox
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76
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86
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79.5
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14-1
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+2000
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AL CENTRAL
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Detroit Tigers
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91
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71
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90
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4-1
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+800
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Chicago White Sox
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83
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79
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80.5
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20-1
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+4000
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Kansas City Royals
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81
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81
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79
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25-1
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+5000
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Cleveland Indians
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77
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85
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77.5
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20-1
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+9000
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Minnesota Twins
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65
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97
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64.5
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50-1
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+10000
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AL WEST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Los Angeles Angels
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92
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70
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89.5
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9-2
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+600
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Texas Rangers
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88
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74
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87
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13-2
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+1500
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Oakland Athletics
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86
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76
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83
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16-1
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+3200
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Seattle Mariners
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75
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87
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76.5
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40-1
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+7000
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Houston Astros
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63
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99
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59.5
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100-1
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+25000
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NL EAST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Washington Nationals
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92
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70
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90
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15-4
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+800
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Atlanta Braves
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89
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73
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86
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7-1
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+1500
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Philadelphia Phillies
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81
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81
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81.5
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25-1
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+1650
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New York Mets
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73
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89
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74
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40-1
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+8800
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Miami Marlins
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61
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101
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64.5
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50-1
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+20000
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NL CENTRAL
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Cincinnati Reds
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91
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71
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89.5
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6-1
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+1200
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St. Louis Cardinals
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85
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77
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85.5
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9-1
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+1800
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Milwaukee Brewers
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81
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81
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79.5
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18-1
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+5000
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Pittsburgh Pirates
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77
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85
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79
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25-1
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+6500
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Chicago Cubs
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75
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87
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72
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40-1
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+10000
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NL WEST
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W
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L
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WINS
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PENNANT
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WS
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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91
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71
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89.5
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4-1
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+650
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San Francisco Giants
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86
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76
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86
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7-1
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+1000
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Arizona Diamondbacks
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83
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79
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81.5
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25-1
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+5000
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San Diego Padres
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76
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86
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74.5
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40-1
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+8500
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Colorado Rockies
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71
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91
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71.5
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50-1
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+10000
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Orioles over 76.5 wins
It seems like everyone, including Vegas, does not believe the Orioles can repeat their incredible 2012 season win total of 93. They certainly had a lot of favorable bounces last year, but are still a solid team with Matt Wieters, Jim Johnson and Adam Jones. Even with a Baltimore chop to .500 in 2013, their 81 wins are 4.5 more than the line, and the largest differential among my predictions.
Blue Jays under 86.5 wins
Am I the only person who thinks an increase of nearly 14 wins from last season is a bit of a reach for Toronto? The new-look Blue Jays won just 73 games last season, but are being picked by many to win the uber-competitive AL East. Jose Reyes is good, but not that good, and I just do not see that much improvement, or a trip to the post-season in 2013.
Astros over 59.5 wins
When was the last time any franchise had three consecutive 100-loss seasons in a row? The Detroit Tigers did it from 1994-96. And, in the past 50 years, only one other franchise, the New York Mets, has done so (1962-65). It will not be easy, but the team that scored the fewest runs in baseball will be helped by their move to the AL and the addition of the designated hitter. The Astros have a .465 winning percentage against the AL, a mark they have achieved only twice in the past six seasons in the NL. As a result, I believe they will narrowly avoid 100 losses in 2013.
Marlins under 64.5 wins
The same cannot be said for Miami. With Houston moving to the AL, and a roster that was decimated by the epic-fail that was their trade with Toronto, the Marlins should be able to claim the worst record in the NL. Without Reyes, Mark Buehrle or Josh Johnson, the 2013 season will not make the Miami-Dade County $2.4 billion debt any easier to swallow.
Dodgers 4-1 to win NL Pennant
On paper, the Washington Nationals may be the best team in baseball, adding Dan Haren, Rafael Soriano and Denard Span to their roster. But, as a lifelong Yankees fan, I know that money talks. Adding Zack Greinke to a pitching rotation that already has Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano makes Los Angeles and their league-leading $213 million payroll my pick to win the NL Pennant.
Value Bet: Giants 7-1 to win NL Pennant
They are still the champs until someone beats them.
Angels 9-2 to win AL Pennant
The Detroit Tigers, with the 2011 and 2012 MVPs, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, will run away with the division this year, and be the first to clinch a playoff spot. But, the lack of competition during the regular season will be their downfall, losing to Josh Hamilton and the Angels in the AL Championship, setting the stage for an all Los Angeles World Series. Not surprisingly, the Angels $152 million payroll is second only to the Yankees in the AL, but that includes the $27.5 million being paid to Alex Rodriguez, who may not play until July.
Value Bet: Rays 12-1 to win AL Pennant
Their chances improve greatly if they edge out New York for the AL East title, avoiding the Wild Card play-in game.
Angels +600 to win World Series
Free-agent Hamilton helps bring home the championship that 2012 free-agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson could not.
Value Bet: Rays +1600 to win World Series
Posted by rkinigson at 2/20/2013 7:49:00 AM |
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Recent Toronto Blue Jays Player News
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| RotoWire Update |
Recommendation |
| Edwin Encarnacion (1B) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| Encarnacion went 2-for-4 with three RBI, one run scored and one double Monday against the Rays. |
Encarnacion is currently on a six-game hitting streak that has seen his batting average increase from .218 to .255. He continues to hit for exceptional power with 12 home runs this season, but he'll need to continue to increase his batting average if he is going to approach the same kind of fantasy value he had last season when he hit .280 with 42 home runs. |
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| R.A. Dickey (P) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| Dickey earned a win Monday against the Rays as he pitched eight innings and allowed three runs (two earned), four hits and four walks to go along with five strikeouts. |
Monday marked Dickey's longest start of the season and his third straight start where he allowed two earned runs. While he is only 4-5 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this season, he looks to be rebounding from a poor start to finally provide fantasy owners with the production they expected from him on draft day. |
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| Emilio Bonifacio (OF) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| Bonifacio went 1-for-3 and scored a run in Monday's victory over the Rays. |
Bonifacio's performance was not overly impressive, but it should be noted that he started at second base Monday for the sixth time in seven games. He had been working as a super-utility player with Maicer Izturis starting at second, but it appears there has been a change in roles. The Blue Jays have not made an official announcement on the matter, but as of now, consider Bonifacio the starter at second base, and Izturis the utility infielder off the bench. |
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| J.P. Arencibia (C) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| Arencibia is not in the lineup for Monday's game against the Rays. |
Arencibia is hitting just .189 in May, so manager John Gibbons decided to hold him out Monday even on the heels of a rain-induced off day. Henry Blanco will get the start behind the plate in Arencibia's place. |
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| Mickey Storey (P) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| The Blue Jays optioned Storey to Triple-A Buffalo on Monday. |
Storey pitched just twice after being recalled a couple weeks ago - and gave up three earned runs over the 3.2 innings he pitched - so the Blue Jays decided to send him to Buffalo to open a roster spot for outfielder Anthony Gose. |
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| Anthony Gose (OF) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| The Blue Jays recalled Gose from Triple-A Buffalo on Monday. |
Gose was hitting just .227 with Buffalo, but with Emilio Bonifacio playing more second base of late, and Rajai Davis on the disabled list, the Blue Jays needed to add another outfielder and settled on the speedy Gose. The Blue Jays kept Gose in the minors so he could play every day, but he won't get the same opportunity with the big club right away. Expect him to play off the bench and serve as an in-game replacement and spot starter in the outfield. |
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| Chad Jenkins (P) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| Jenkins, who was slated to start Monday against the Rays, will instead be available out of the bullpen after Sunday's rainout pushed R.A. Dickey's start back a day, Sportsnet reports. |
Jenkins will likely be back on the mound Friday against the Orioles when the Jays next need a fifth starter. |
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| Marcus Stroman (P) TOR |
5/20/2013 |
| Stroman made his debut for Double-A New Hampshire on Sunday, throwing five innings of shutout ball, allowing just four hits and one walk with six strikeouts to pick up the win against New Britain. |
The Jays' 2012 first-round pick was suspended for 50 games in August after testing positive for a banned stimulant. If he can continue to pitch well over a significant stretch, the 22-year-old Stroman could join the big league rotation before the end of the season. |
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Recent Toronto Blue Jays Team News
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| RotoWire Update |
| TOR |
10/4/2004 |
| John Gibbons was named manager of the Blue Jays on Monday, the Associated Press reports. He was given a one year contract. Gibbons took over as interim manager on Aug. 8, when Carlos Tosca was fired after the team opened 47-64. |
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8/8/2004 |
| The Blue Jays fired manager Carlos Tosca on Sunday. The team named first base coach John Gibbons interim manager for the remainder of the season. |
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10/8/2002 |
| GM J.P. Ricciardi has officially signed his five-year contract extension, the Associated Press reports. The Red Sox reportedly had pursued Ricciardi, causing much speculation in T.O. |
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Roster
Majors
Arencibia, J.P. C
Bautista, Jose OF
Blanco, Henry C
Bonifacio, Emilio OF
Buehrle, Mark P
Cabrera, Melky OF
Cecil, Brett P
Davis, Rajai OF(15D DL)
Delabar, Steve P
DeRosa, Mark OF
Dickey, R.A. P
Drabek, Kyle P(60D DL)
Encarnacion, Edwin 1B
Gose, Anthony OF
Happ, J.A. P(15D DL)
Hutchison, Drew P(60D DL)
Izturis, Maicer 3B
Janssen, Casey P
Jenkins, Chad P
Johnson, Josh P(15D DL)
Kawasaki, Munenori SS
Lawrie, Brett 3B
Lincoln, Brad P
Lind, Adam 1B
Loup, Aaron P
McGowan, Dustin P(60D DL)
Morrow, Brandon P(DTD)
Oliver, Darren P
Ortiz, Ramon P
Perez, Luis P(60D DL)
Rasmus, Colby OF
Reyes, Jose SS(60D DL)
Rogers, Esmil P
Santos, Sergio P(60D DL)
AAA
Batista, Miguel P
Beck, Chad P
Brummett, Tyson P
Bush, Dave P
Carlyle, Buddy P
Carreno, Joel P
Collazo, Willie P
Everts, Clint P
Germano, Justin P
Goins, Ryan SS
Gomez, Mauro 1B
Hoffpauir, Jarrett 2B
Hottovy, Tommy P
Jeffress, Jeremy P
Jimenez, Luis 1B
Jimenez, Alvido P
Korecky, Bobby P
Langerhans, Ryan OF
LaRoche, Andy 3B
Loewen, Adam OF
McCoy, Mike OF(DTD)
Murphy, Bill P
Nanita, Ricardo OF
Negrych, Jim 2B
Nickeas, Mike C
Nieves, Efrain P
Perez, Juan P
Redding, Tim P
Redmond, Todd P
Romero, Ricky P
Schwimer, Michael P
Sierra, Moises OF
Smith, Dwight OF
Stilson, John P
Storey, Mickey P
Thole, Josh C
Uviedo, Ronald P
Vargas, Claudio P(DTD)
Velez, Eugenio 2B
Wagner, Neil P
Weber, Thad P
AA
Clemens, Koby 1B
Crawford, Evan P
Hernandez, Fernando P
Jacobo, Gabe 1B
McGuire, Deck P
Mozingo, Harold P
Nay, Mitch 3B
Nolin, Sean P
Pillar, Kevin OF
Robinson, Clint 1B
Sanchez, Luis SS
Schimpf, Ryan 2B
Spoone, Chorye P
Stroman, Marcus P
Tepera, Ryan P(Out)
Tolisano, John OF
Wilson, Kenny OF
Zawadzki, Lance SS
A+
Ahrens, Kevin 3B
Farina, Alan P(Suspension)
Jimenez, A.J. C
Knecht, Marcus OF
Sanchez, Aaron P
Smith, Egan P
A
Brisker, Markus OF
Fuenmayor, Balbino 3B
Hawkins, Chris 3B
Hobson, K.C. 1B
Lopes, Christian 2B
Norris, Daniel P
Osuna, Roberto P(Out)
Pompey, Dalton OF
Smoral, Matt P
Sweeney, Kellen SS
Rookie
Alford, Anthony OF
Anderson, Jacob OF
Barreto, Franklin OF
Davis, D.J. OF
DeJong, Chase P
Gabryszwski, Jeremy P
Gonzales, Tyler P
Jackson, Justin P
Murphy, Griffin P
Thon, Jr, Dickie SS
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